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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:41 pm to rds dc
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:41 pm to rds dc
quote:
I'm not sure if it is slower and east or just more sloppy. The GFS has gone back to the multiple vort max solution...
Any idea if the data from the upper-level recon mission was plugged into this run?
3
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:43 pm to slackster
Other than falling apart completely, this is as good as you can hope for LA:
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:44 pm to rds dc
quote:
I'm not sure if it is slower and east or just more sloppy. The GFS has gone back to the multiple vort max solution...
So this may not develop at all?
Like is that at 20% possibility?
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:45 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Mobile is screwed
Well damn. That's not what I wanted to hear Cosmo.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:45 pm to slackster
That looks like it does fall apart completely...
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:45 pm to slackster
Stolen from Medics site since he won’t posit here right now.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:46 pm to Theboot32
It honestly broke apart, the minute PJ predicted it would go straight through Nola.
incredible
incredible
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:46 pm to Earthquake 88
quote:
Well damn. That's not what I wanted to hear Cosmo.
He's being facetious to some extent. Just pointing out a eastern shift is a possibility as well.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:46 pm to t00f
Hey y’all don’t forget about us average joes when talking about new maps and what not.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:47 pm to slackster
quote:
Any idea if the data from the upper-level recon mission was plugged into this run?
It looks like 20+ drops were ingested but those were downstream of the system. The GFS issues appear to start right off the bat, so the drops probably didn't play a role in that.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:47 pm to slackster
quote:
Just pointing out a eastern shift is a possibility as well.
We do the western shift shuffle here in Louisiana.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:47 pm to Theboot32
When does the euro come out like that?
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:48 pm to iamAG
GFS is a bit more east, which is intesting since the Euro was more east before
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:48 pm to Theboot32
quote:
That looks like it does fall apart completely...
I'm talking about something that dissipates and doesn't even come ashore at all, but your'e right, this isn't much of a storm in the 00z GFS run.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:49 pm to iamAG
quote:
When does the euro come out like that?
Starts around 12:45.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:49 pm to rds dc
quote:
I'm not sure if it is slower and east or just more sloppy. The GFS has gone back to the multiple vort max solution...
Dancing vort maxes all the way up the gulf. Then...stalls between hour 48-54? Then strengthens as it makes landfall and goes up to the northshore. Weird.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:50 pm to t00f
Hoping this to be true. We'll know by tomorrow night just how strong this thing will get before it hits land. If it doesn't see much strength gathered over that warm water then I could see that scenario playing out.
Radar looked to me like it was already getting better organized and it wasn't fully in water yet...
Radar looked to me like it was already getting better organized and it wasn't fully in water yet...
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:51 pm to rds dc
Recon headed back towards the center after finding some decent winds in the eastern portion of the circulation. Now to see if it has pushed back out over water yet.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:51 pm to deuce985
That is what has me worried..cold cloud tops around the storm and it isn't even in the water yet, well the whole storm isn't in the water just yet.
This post was edited on 10/5/17 at 10:52 pm
Posted on 10/5/17 at 10:52 pm to slackster
quote:
Slower, weaker, and slightly east.
That makes no sense. If it shifts east and slows down its going to get stronger
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