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1
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:06 pm to Theboot32
quote:
Should we breathe a little sigh of relief or was this run an outlier?
ETA: I know you wouldn't tell people to relax, but do thing looks better now than they did 6 hours ago?
We've seen the GFS spit this out before, so it's not a crazy scenario. It's only one model though, but you'd rather it be weak in the models than stronger.
I'd call it a small win, as far as model run goes.
That being said, the actual convection blowing up around the center of Nate in the present time is a bit concerning.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:07 pm to BeeFense5
National Weather Service doing a good job scaring people.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:07 pm to slackster
998.9 mb at flight level
This post was edited on 10/5/17 at 11:09 pm
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:08 pm to Ancient Astronaut
quote:
I love the news showing footage of Cat 3+ storms when talking about weak sauce Nate.
Stop underestimating storms. If it is a hurricane, it will be a big deal somewhere
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:08 pm to rt3
And that means?
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:08 pm to Dizz
Some runs on these things you kinda toss them out. A lot of stuff don't make sense on that GFS run honestly. I will be interested to see how organized the storm is when I wake up and what Euro says. I just find it hard to believe as an example on that GFS run it slows down in all that fuel with practically no adverse effects and finds no way to strengthen? It's already showing a little better organized signs and it's not even in open water yet.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:09 pm to slackster
Gotcha, when will the most telling point be? After it crosses the Yucatán?
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:11 pm to iamAG
quote:
And that means?
just an update on the pressures the plane is finding in the storm
as we all now... lower pressure typically = stronger storm
the absolute knowledge will come from surface readings... dropsondes, buoys, is Nicaragua & Honduras putting out any weather info?
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:11 pm to Theboot32
quote:
Gotcha, when will the most telling point be? After it crosses the Yucatán?
If Nate is going to be anything significant, it really needs to ramp up over the next 24 hours. The last 24 hours are going to be hauling arse.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:12 pm to rt3
quote:
my 1 hangup with the new GFS is it keeps the center off of the Yucatan Peninsula... but that doesn't seem to allow it to grow at all... which I found somewhat odd
Looking at the pressure fields is a bit deceiving but the vort fields tell the story. The 00z GFS has "Nate" as part of the larger CA low (big red circle) and then it has what would be Nate as a very broad circulation with a couple of vort max (smaller red circle) within the larger CA low. That is a very sloppy setup and wouldn't allow for much strengthening.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:12 pm to deuce985
I'm 100% convinced that stormcast forums takes advantage of times like these to illicit donations. Every single time there was legitimate action this season, their servers "went down". I never remember them having this issue during other previous events until this hurricane season. Each time they get back online, they ask for donations to stay up and running.
I know a lot of people are trying to go to their site but damnit this never happened before. It pisses me off.
I know a lot of people are trying to go to their site but damnit this never happened before. It pisses me off.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:12 pm to slackster
Significant meaning a hurricane?
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:13 pm to slackster
Great, looks like the radar in Slidell is down. Hopefully it's just some planned maintenance.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:14 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
They aren't lying
Without context I guess it doesn't seem crazy. But this isn't just an office manager email. It's the crisis management center for employees. It's supposed to be our go to source for this stuff.
They just said they'll send another email if anything changes and becomes more serious. Not sure what else could change since were in the center of the cone and under a hurricane watch.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:14 pm to Chatagnier
Nate dogg already took em out!
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:14 pm to slackster
I was surprised tonight not to really see any lines getting supplies and fuel. I got ready tonight. Seems like this storm is honestly creeping up on Louisiana and people don't realize how fast it's going to hit.
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:14 pm to slackster
quote:
That's not how it really works in this case.
Why? It keeps it over warmer water and low shear longer
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:15 pm to deuce985
quote:
t GFS run it slows down in all that fuel with practically no adverse effects and finds no way to strengthen? I
The reason it doesn't strengthen in that run is the interaction with another energy system.
Nothing ever becomes dominant so the strengthening doesn't really happen. As we've learned in the past, it takes more than warm water for a storm to strengthen.
ETA - rds did a good job explaining the technical parts of it a few posts above this one.
This post was edited on 10/5/17 at 11:18 pm
Posted on 10/5/17 at 11:16 pm to Theboot32
quote:
Significant meaning a hurricane?
Basically.
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