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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 9/28/17 at 10:58 am to rds dc
Posted on 9/28/17 at 10:58 am to rds dc
A pro Met. Over on Storm2k says that the Euro is now forecasting a strong trough over most of the gulf by the time the forecast 'system' down in the Caribbean is in the gulf. This would keep whatever this is by then well in check.
1
Posted on 9/28/17 at 2:31 pm to rds dc
quote:
Luckily, Lee has stay well away from any land. It was left for dead and then, without any model support, came back and made the run to major. Lee has also stayed a very small system.
Lee has a great strategic mind. He is using Maria for cover while he plots his flanking maneuver on Baltimore and DC.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 2:50 pm to otowntiger
quote:
Is that really a big swath of 150 kJ/sqcm? FUUUUCK. That's a shitload of energy available. No shear and we get to test the theoretical limits of hurricane strength in our basin. That's the sort of potential we all want to see.
But no shear at this time of year is rare, especially as you go further West into the Gulf. It is rare that fronts have not come through by October. So any storm moving north towards the coast will probably run into shear and major dry air.
This post was edited on 9/28/17 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 9/28/17 at 3:00 pm to otowntiger
quote:
A pro Met. Over on Storm2k says that the Euro is now forecasting a strong trough over most of the gulf by the time the forecast 'system' down in the Caribbean is in the gulf. This would keep whatever this is by then well in check.
Yea, pretty big flip on the Euro in the last 24 hrs. Yesterday, had a ridging across the East and today it flipped. That shift also totally switched up the upper levels across the Gulf.
12z yesterday:
12z today:
Posted on 9/28/17 at 3:01 pm to BigB0882
Dry air would almost be a certainty in October as a potential TC approaches the northern Gulf coast.
The outer circulation would act like a mid-latitude cyclone.
The outer circulation would act like a mid-latitude cyclone.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 3:01 pm to BigB0882
quote:
But no shear at this time of year is rare
Certainly. That's why I noted no shear being necessary for the rest of my fear mongering.
quote:
So any storm moving north towards the coast will probably run into shear and major dry air.
Oh yeah. Looking for the specifics to become more in focus, but I expect the gulf to be pretty hostile to any system this time of year until I see otherwise. Furthermore, with the fronts swinging down you'd expect most systems that would end up in the gulf get the boot toward Florida.
These later season storms have been known to be a nightmare for central America if they don't catch a slap out NE as the water down in the W Caribbean is always quite warm and deep.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 3:02 pm to Duke
History shows once you get to mid october TX/LA/FL panhandle are pretty safe
Posted on 9/28/17 at 3:07 pm to Cosmo
Yeah. Only one I can remember hitting the central gulf in October was Lili and she hit really early in October.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 4:12 pm to Duke
Hurricane Juan was in late October.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 4:21 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Hurricane Juan was in late October.
Juan was obviously messed up. Showed up late and didn't know where to go
Posted on 9/28/17 at 4:24 pm to rds dc
Also, Louisiana is 2nd in October hurricane landfalls behind Florida.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 4:36 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
Can I be the first to suggest that the models are all wrong and it's going to shift many hundreds of miles to the West?
This made me laugh so damn hard
Posted on 9/28/17 at 4:44 pm to NawlinsTiger9
The Lilli comment got me thinking about that year. Isidore hit as a Cat 3 and Lilli was a few weeks later. Yet, I don't remember any real fear in NOLA or damage. My how things have changed.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 4:48 pm to rds dc
quote:
Also, Louisiana is 2nd in October hurricane landfalls behind Florida.
Huh, always learning stuff in these threads. Need to brush up on my late season history looks like.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 5:12 pm to Fat Harry
Isidore hit the Yucatan as a Cat 3, when it got to Louisiana it was a strong tropical storm.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 5:18 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Breaking: Florida says they can't play the LSU game due to safety concerns.
LSU should step up and host the game in Baton Rouge. I'm sure Florida will be amenable to that solution.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 9:08 pm to rds dc
quote:
Juan was obviously messed up. Showed up late and didn't know where to go
Posted on 9/28/17 at 9:30 pm to X123F45
quote:
If I knew where your trailer was, I would burn it down.
Posted on 9/28/17 at 9:45 pm to FCP
i remember 4 years ago Oct 5th, a hurricane blew up in the middle gulf and was supposed to hit Mobile - same day I was getting married at Bellingrath gardens.
scrambled to change from outdoor to indoor - and then the damn thing pretty much dissipated.
fricking tropical weather systems :P
scrambled to change from outdoor to indoor - and then the damn thing pretty much dissipated.
fricking tropical weather systems :P
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