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Posted on 10/4/17 at 6:41 pm to Cosmo
Wouldn't be a 2017 hurricane thread without a HMON doomcane. Definitely my favorite of the unreliable models. Subtlety is overrated.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 6:42 pm to Duke
I want to post that HMON on my social media pages just to see my friends start to freak out
Posted on 10/4/17 at 6:45 pm to rt3
Posted on 10/4/17 at 6:45 pm to rt3
my only concern is that, even with the European model, it's always shifted west. with Harvey, and Isaac. they both went further west than there initial forecast. this one, of course, is only 4 days out from mainland landfall.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 6:54 pm to blight
quote:
my only concern is that, even with the European model, it's always shifted west. with Harvey, and Isaac. they both went further west than there initial forecast. this one, of course, is only 4 days out from mainland landfall.
That's legitimate right now.
The Euro makes a lot of sense, but still depends on how that northern wave developes. Then when and how strong the cold front that should be blowing down early next week.
ETA: just watch Levi's video linked above.
This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 6:55 pm
Posted on 10/4/17 at 6:59 pm to Duke
Levi says a major question about potential Nate's path could be answered as soon as tomorrow morning
basically he thinks we'll have a better idea tomorrow morning how strong the high pressure system over the Bahamas will be...
if it's weaker that'll mean Euro is right and the storm's Florida bound
if it's stronger that'll mean GFS is right and the storm's Louisiana bound
basically he thinks we'll have a better idea tomorrow morning how strong the high pressure system over the Bahamas will be...
if it's weaker that'll mean Euro is right and the storm's Florida bound
if it's stronger that'll mean GFS is right and the storm's Louisiana bound
Posted on 10/4/17 at 7:36 pm to JetFuelTyga
quote:
God damn Nate Higgers at it again
I read this initially as something else
Posted on 10/4/17 at 7:36 pm to rds dc
quote:
Just to be sure, no one should take the HMON seriously.
Why? Why even have this HMON if no one is to believe it?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 7:42 pm to deltaland
quote:
I read this initially as something else
save it for the poli board
Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:00 pm to Duke
quote:
Wouldn't be a 2017 hurricane thread without a HMON doomcane.
That model is completely ridiculous. With how fast this storm is projected to move, is 906mb even physically possible even if it takes the perfect track with no land interaction?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:04 pm to deltaland
quote:
906mb
Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:15 pm to deltaland
I guess 906 mb is theoretically possible, but i guess it's still theoretically possible LSU wins the national championship too.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:20 pm to Duke
How bad could this thing get moving as fast as it is?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:21 pm to rt3
Even though the gfs has the storm more west towards us, that track is preferable over the euro since the land interaction will hamper any significant strengthening.
The euro track gives the storm the best shot at being a more powerful hurricane
The euro track gives the storm the best shot at being a more powerful hurricane
Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:38 pm to rds dc
The 18z GFS, HWRF, HMON and nearly all the GEFS members ended up with landfall outside the current cone.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:40 pm to rds dc
quote:
The 18z GFS, HWRF, HMON and nearly all the GEFS members ended up with landfall outside the current cone.
Levi's video tonight had an interesting little nugget
he said the cone SHOULD spread from south-central Louisiana to the bend in Florida
but this cone is based more on historical tracks
Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:43 pm to rt3
Not this cone but the cone is based on historical (I think the last five years) error, with a width of just one standard deviation IIRC.
In this case, it definitely isn't representative of the spread of possible outcomes.
In this case, it definitely isn't representative of the spread of possible outcomes.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:49 pm to rt3
I’m going to do that right fricking now
Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:12 pm to deltaland
I'd eat a storm here for Florida if it was a fast moving tropical storm or something. They dealt with enough from Irma.
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