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re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 4:46 pm to rds dc
Posted on 10/4/17 at 4:46 pm to rds dc
Welp, so much for that, 18z GFS is already a head scratcher as it gets Nate tangled up with the larger area of low pressure with multiple vorts. This pulls it farther inland than the 12z run or any other models.
3
Posted on 10/4/17 at 4:47 pm to BRIllini07
quote:
I believe (from prior threads and other forums) the NHC is using a fixed distance from the forecast track to set their cones. The distance is based on historical modeling error and doesn't take into account the specifics of this storm.
Exactly. They'll usually put something in the discussion about how their confidence level in the given forecast track, but the cone doesn't change it's shape based on their confidence. They basically make a forecast of the center location in 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours, then draw a circle around those points with radii of 29nm, 45nm, 63nm, 78nm, 107nm, 159nm, and 211nm, respectively. Those circles are connected at their outer edges in order to make the "cone."
Posted on 10/4/17 at 4:53 pm to deltaland
quote:
be clear, you don't add the forward speed to the wind speed from the NHC,
I took it that's what he meant based on how he worded it
Gotcha. The main takeaway is that, all else being equal, a faster storm will have stronger winds.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 4:55 pm to rds dc
God damn Nate Higgers at it again
Posted on 10/4/17 at 4:58 pm to rds dc
I'm hoping tonight's 00Z runs are better than this, the GFS barley has a system in the Gulf this run. Don't get me wrong I hope there is no strong storm in the Gulf.
This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:00 pm to slackster
That makes more sense thanks. The more you know.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:02 pm to rds dc
NVM was looking at the wrong model on my phone
This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:06 pm to deuce985
Models shifting back west :thinking emoji:
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:09 pm to The Boat
I'd take a storm like the GFS is showing on the current run 
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:09 pm to lsuman25
quote:
I'm hoping tonight's 00Z runs are better than this, the GFS barley has a system in the Gulf this run. Don't get me wrong I hope there is no strong storm in the Gulf.
This is kind of a best case scenario run with the system staying tangled up with land until it emerges in the Gulf. That leaves it pretty disorganized and it doesn't have time to pull things together before landfall. Only problem, the way the 18z GFS gets that to happen is questionable at best. I typically refrain from calling "toss this run" but I have serious doubts about what the GFS is doing across CA/EPAC and up into the Yucatan.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:09 pm to deuce985
Any links to the new GFS run?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:12 pm to JetFuelTyga
quote:
God damn Nate Higgers at it again
I read this way too fast. Thought you were fixing to get perma banned
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:13 pm to rds dc
Louisiana is in a good spot for this storm because with the way it's heading it would have to spend a lot of time over land to angle its way towards Louisiana. Leaving it less time to organize. It would be like an Isadore in 2002 situation. If it rolls towards Florida it could shoot the gap and stay over water the whole time
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:23 pm to rds dc
Great thread
But what has PJ said ?????
But what has PJ said ?????
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:25 pm to rds dc
quote:
Welp, so much for that, 18z GFS is already a head scratcher as it gets Nate tangled up with the larger area of low pressure with multiple vorts. This pulls it farther inland than the 12z run or any other models.
Holy hell, you weren't kidding about head scratcher. Is that run even possible physically?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:38 pm to Duke
They really need to improve the GFS. I don't know what the Euro model does that makes it so much more reliable but they seriously need to take a look at GFS. Not to say it's horrible because it's definitely the second most reliable. It has been pretty bad with this system overall though especially this run.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:48 pm to deuce985
quote:
I don't know what the Euro model does that makes it so much more reliable but they seriously need to take a look at GFS.
Found this with a little googling:
NBC News
quote:
The models, known as four-dimensional variational data assimilations (or 4D-Var) are expensive and take longer to assemble — producing two projections a day compared to the faster modeling systems run in the United States, which produce four or more projections every 24 hours.
quote:
“The idea behind their model is to forecast for the entire globe,” said Ryan Maue, a research meteorologist for WeatherBELL Analytics. "The theory is that, if they can get as much of the atmosphere around the globe correct as possible, then the tropical cyclones in the model will go in the right places and do the right things.”
So I think basically that the Euro is doing a lot of work to compile a worldwide forecast to give a more complete picture for what might happen. That's not to say the GFS isn't accurate; it's a trade-off between focus and speed.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:58 pm to bbrownso
Plus the Euro just has more computing power. I want Trump to push to make the GFS great again.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 6:02 pm to Duke
Are you people all in o & g?
Hobbyists?
Computer programmers?
I am amazed that so many have the mnemonics down and understand so much.
Hobbyists?
Computer programmers?
I am amazed that so many have the mnemonics down and understand so much.
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