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re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:24 am to rds dc
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:24 am to rds dc
I thought these systems were suppose to take awhile to develop. Considering the theme in this Atlantic season is tropical systems LOVE to blow up in 24 hours...I'm taking a negative outlook on this one. That's why I said last night I'm worried about rapid intensification. It's heading towards some ridiculous fuel and this thing has already went from a projected tropical system within 5 days to a tropical depression in 24 hours. It's already organizing fast...
0
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:26 am to Duke
its moving so fast that it wont have much time to intensify but it certainly will. if it was moving slower this thing could blow up cat 3+
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:29 am to tke857
That's actually the positive thing on this track is this thing is hauling arse in the tracks so it shouldn't linger around landfall long whoever takes the direct hit.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:37 am to tke857
It wouldn't take long for future Nate to pop off if central America doesn't mess with the circulation too much. Wilma dropped 100 mb in 24 hours over this part of the Caribbean, not that anyone should expect that. It's just worth remembering if a storm gets organized and in a low shear environment, things can change rapidly with the heat source that is the W. Caribbean.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:42 am to Duke
I just need to know if i'll be able to fish this weekend. Guessing if it hits the panhandle, we will have some winds/showers, correct?
What about the affect on the water? Would a storm that hits the panhandle drop the water around here?
What about the affect on the water? Would a storm that hits the panhandle drop the water around here?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:44 am to Duke
Based on the projected paths, it's also not interacting with land very long and is lingering over very warm low shear water. Not to mention it's ridiculously warm for this time of the year. So really it doesn't have a lot of adverse effects slowing it down to get organized quick. The fact they expect it to be a tropical storm later today is basically 24 hours of nothing to a tropical storm. I'd say it's getting intensified very quickly...I honestly don't see how they can project this as 80mph Cat 1 hitting land. Hopefully it interacts more with land and some shear can be pulled around it at some point when it gets near GOM.
This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 10:46 am
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:45 am to Black
It'll be choppy out in the open water, but we'd be on the dryer side as things stand today. Might actually get some really nice breezy weather if we're looking at a Panama City storm.
I wouldn't alter your plans yet, just know things can change.
I wouldn't alter your plans yet, just know things can change.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:48 am to Duke
quote:
just know things can change.
no doubt, thanks
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:53 am to Black
im never going to get to go fishing
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:54 am to Duke
Looks like the GFS got its kinks out..looks to bring the system in Southeastern Louisiana still. Landfall looks like it would be near Intracoastal City on this run.
This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 10:58 am
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:58 am to hardhead
quote:
hardhead
quote:
im never going to get to go fishing
the line is long
Posted on 10/4/17 at 10:59 am to lsuman25
quote:
Looks like the GFS got its kinks out..looks to bring the system in Southeastern Louisiana still. Landfall looks like it would be near Intracoastal City on this run.
frick gfs
Posted on 10/4/17 at 11:03 am to Fun Bunch
NWS seems to be ignoring the GFS
GFS drunk, been lagging euro all season
GFS drunk, been lagging euro all season
This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 11:04 am
Posted on 10/4/17 at 11:05 am to lsuman25
quote:
Intracoastal City
Posted on 10/4/17 at 11:05 am to Cosmo
Lets hope the trend continues of the GFS being whacked out on coke
Posted on 10/4/17 at 11:11 am to tke857
I'm strangely okay with this
Posted on 10/4/17 at 11:12 am to tke857
Yeah, frick the GFS.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 11:14 am to tke857
GFS at 72 hours or so. Trough digging into the planes and midwest forcing a weakness in our high farther west. The bremuda high builds in West to "balance" it in a sense and Nate goes into Louisiana while our conus trough gets flat up north.
Here we have last night's Euro at about the same time frame. The trough isn't as strong and is farther west. Once it progresses east, it opens up a weakness more toward Florida planhandle and Nate takes that.
GFS tends to overdo those contential troughs and is probably a little fast on the progression of it. Hard to argue with the Euro after this year, and the NHC has definitely been fading toward the Euro.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 11:16 am to Duke
GFS sure is confident on their ensembles. frick the GFS.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 11:28 am to deuce985
quote:
On the northern end of the tropical wave, a sfc low will try to get started near the Florida Straits but looks to remain weak. But it will serve as the feature designating the northern most part of the wave. This feauture will move northwest and extend the tropical wave farther north by the end of the week. This looks to become more of a conduit for the developing tropical system over the southwest Caribbean to move northwest along the trough axis. Since the jet that develops the upper trough out west over the weekend is now over the open Pacific with no upper air sampling, global models are now having a hard time with the exit of the tropical system to the north. The Euro would like to have it picked up by the short wave that moves across the CONUS over the weekend. This short wave is currently stationary over the northwest. This scenario would help keep it east of the area. The GFS wants to have the short wave pass it by while having the deeper long wave trough that is developing over the innermountain west over the weekend pick it up which would be a farther west solution. Basically, this will simply come down to timing, which will determine the location of each featured player in the final outcome.
NWS Slidell Forecast Discussion
LIX with a nice breakdown.
NWS Mobile Discussion
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