re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?

Posted by Slagathor

Makin' jokes about your teeny tiny

Member since Jul 2007

38952 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:52 am to rds dc

such a shame :omgonoz: is dead

Posted by GEAUXT

Member since Nov 2007

30413 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:54 am to Slagathor

quote:
such a shame :omgonoz: is dead

Posted by Slagathor

Makin' jokes about your teeny tiny

Member since Jul 2007

38952 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 8:56 am to GEAUXT

OMG! Yes!

Posted by GEAUXT

Member since Nov 2007

30413 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:00 am to Slagathor

: onoz :

Posted by GEAUXmedic

Premium Member

Member since Nov 2011

42049 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:05 am to GEAUXT

@NHC_Atlantic
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Sixteen, currently located over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea.

Posted by redneck

Los Suenos, Costa Rica

Member since Dec 2003

54158 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:06 am to GEAUXT

Well my Saturday just went from fishing to possibly packing up the camp and moving the boats to Covington

Posted by deuce985

Member since Feb 2008

27660 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:07 am to GEAUXmedic

I haven't looked at computer models this morning. Did they start trending towards the east like the Euro? Did the Euro pick up on the eastward trend before all the other ones again?

Posted by Icansee4miles

Trolling the Tickfaw

Member since Jan 2007

31880 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:08 am to tke857

I feel your pain. PCB this weekend for me. The lady I'm renting the AirBnB from told me "the building should be good for withstanding a Cat 2 storm" in response to my inquiry about rescheduling.

Posted by rt3

now in the piney woods of Pineville

Member since Apr 2011

146397 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:09 am to Icansee4miles

welp... time to go into full amateur meteorologist mode

Posted by Cosmo

glassman's guest house

Member since Oct 2003

129472 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:12 am to GEAUXmedic

So are we gonna start wishcasting this to LA?

Posted by rt3

now in the piney woods of Pineville

Member since Apr 2011

146397 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:16 am to Cosmo

quote:
So are we gonna start wishcasting this to LA?

you haven't been doing that already?

ETA:

This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 9:16 am

Posted by GEAUXmedic

Premium Member

Member since Nov 2011

42049 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:16 am to Cosmo

quote:
So are we gonna start wishcasting this to LA?

No, there's enough people wishcasting it to Florida on other forums that I think we're safe here.

Posted by deltaland

Member since Mar 2011

100539 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:18 am to deltaland

quote:
I'm betting it's a TD by mid morning tomorrow

Called it

Posted by marinebioman

Ocean Springs, MS

Member since Feb 2005

3396 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:23 am to deltaland

Any idea what Carnival would do for a a 4-day cruise that leaves NO tomorrow and is supposed to port in Cozumel on Saturday and return to NO Monday morning? I mean that schedule basically puts us in the storm and then has us stay in the storm as we head back towards NO. And Carnival hasn't said a peep yet...

This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 9:26 am

Posted by deltaland

Member since Mar 2011

100539 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:23 am to deuce985

quote:
haven't looked at computer models this morning. Did they start trending towards the east like the Euro?

No the GFS got drunk, was seeing double, and staggered all over the place

Posted by deltaland

Member since Mar 2011

100539 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:26 am to rt3

quote:
welp... time to go into full amateur meteorologist mode

Posted by GEAUXmedic

Premium Member

Member since Nov 2011

42049 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:39 am to deltaland

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 81.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the
Honduras border.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the
border with Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and
the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track,
the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early
Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras
late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today
or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across
portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches
possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are
expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible.
Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the
warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into
Honduras late Thursday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

Posted by Duke

Dillon, CO

Member since Jan 2008

36439 posts

Posted on 10/4/17 at 9:43 am to deltaland

quote:
Called it

Gets interesting if our future Nate misses interaction with Central America. Shear maps appear favorable for the next few days. Some hints that he'll get a little upper level help to vent and the warmest water any tropical system has had to work with this year.