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2
Posted on 10/3/17 at 10:03 pm to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
Thanks for all the detailed breakdowns. Pick up a little more each time, especially right after watching Levi's video.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 10:03 pm to lsuman25
quote:
I hope it doesn't ramp up too fast down there, I know they can given the presentation of the coast there.
Yea, basically the rule of thumb is that these systems are slow to develop. However, as I pointed our earlier in this thread and Levi pointed out tonight, things get spun up faster when a wave interacts with the broad area of already lower pressure. All bets would be off if this consolidates quickly and starts to ramp up.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 10:04 pm to deltaland
I've really enjoyed y'alls insight following these threads lately.
So I'm taking the family down to Dauphin Island, AL next week. Am I gonna get screwed out of a vacation?
So I'm taking the family down to Dauphin Island, AL next week. Am I gonna get screwed out of a vacation?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 10:26 pm to rds dc
quote:
However, as I pointed our earlier in this thread and Levi pointed out tonight, things get spun up faster when a wave interacts with the broad area of already lower pressure. All bets would be off if this consolidates quickly and starts to ramp up.
It's still pretty broad though, so maybe little extra time to tighten and close off? I see how that "monsoon gyro" would help to spin it up faster. Probably going to shore up my cyclogenesis game tomorrow.
If he spin up quick, could get serious quickly with that heat content to work with.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 10:28 pm to upgrayedd
quote:
What's the official pump situation in NOLA?
Posted on 10/3/17 at 10:45 pm to Duke
quote:
If he spin up quick, could get serious quickly with that heat content to work with.
East of the Yucatan Peninsula has the most energy potential in the Atlantic/Caribbean/GOM right now:
Posted on 10/3/17 at 10:53 pm to marinebioman
Not real sure. Going to wait and see what they say tomorrow. This is just my luck though.
Posted on 10/3/17 at 10:55 pm to slackster
150 kJ/cm^2 is pretty tremendous.
Gets some outflow help and "whoa nelly"!
At least she's still big and kind of sloppy but Levi and rds are certainly right that the "monsoon gyro" providing a boost to the spin could get her to wrap up faster than normal.
I guess I'll see what the models have in the morning
ETA: 0z GFS goes with two lows orbiting each other practically and a weak system into SELa. So... probably just hunk that run in the trash and try again at the 6z.
Gets some outflow help and "whoa nelly"!
At least she's still big and kind of sloppy but Levi and rds are certainly right that the "monsoon gyro" providing a boost to the spin could get her to wrap up faster than normal.
I guess I'll see what the models have in the morning
ETA: 0z GFS goes with two lows orbiting each other practically and a weak system into SELa. So... probably just hunk that run in the trash and try again at the 6z.
This post was edited on 10/3/17 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 10/3/17 at 11:35 pm to BRIllini07
The computer models can't predict where this system is going right now with a direct hit. All we know is it's going to hit somewhere on gulf coast right now but until it forms, it's going to be all over the place. The eye could form 100 miles eastward or westward which would make a major difference on the track.
I'm personally worried about this thing seeing some rapid intensification happening. In just a day it went from nothing to a possible Cat 2 hitting land. GOM is PEDs for hurricanes and it's heading in the worst spot for it to run into adverse effects. Nothing but fuel ahead of it.
I'm personally worried about this thing seeing some rapid intensification happening. In just a day it went from nothing to a possible Cat 2 hitting land. GOM is PEDs for hurricanes and it's heading in the worst spot for it to run into adverse effects. Nothing but fuel ahead of it.
This post was edited on 10/3/17 at 11:39 pm
Posted on 10/4/17 at 12:13 am to deuce985
A meteorologist I follow said we won't know until at least Thursday where this thing is going for sure. Buckle up, baws.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 12:28 am to deuce985
quote:
rapid intensification happening
That seems to be the theme for this 2017 hurricane season. A number of systems were TS or Cat 1 level, and 36 hours or so later they became major hurricanes.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 12:36 am to East Coast Band
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continue to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast
to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical depression within the next couple
of days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward
across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move
into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and emerge over
the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua,
Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system over the next few days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continue to
show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast
to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical depression within the next couple
of days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward
across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move
into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and emerge over
the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua,
Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system over the next few days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of
development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:22 am to lsuman25
00z Euro hr 66 and 72:
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:23 am to GEAUXmedic
Euro has a landfall east of Panama City
Posted on 10/4/17 at 1:30 am to lsuman25
Yep, both have it as basically a strong TS or maybe barely a Category 1, which is a welcome change from the estimates from earlier.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:05 am to Keys Open Doors
Well, I was suppose to go to Cancun this Thursday. Should I just go ahead and say my trip is fricked?
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:08 am to Guapamole
06z GFS
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:15 am to GEAUXmedic
what a crazy looking run..hopefully recon does not cancel for this afternoon and we can get some data into the models for the 00Z runs tonight.
Posted on 10/4/17 at 5:15 am to GEAUXmedic
Hoping this run is wrong! It wouldn't be very strong but still to close for comfort!
This post was edited on 10/4/17 at 5:18 am
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