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re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?

Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:38 pm to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:38 pm to
quote:

What made them announce it now and not wait til the next advisory? It's only 30 minutes after the last one came out.




If it's something verified by recon, and significant, like a change form a TS to a hurricane, they'll issue special updates.
Posted by shawnlsu
Member since Nov 2011
23682 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:39 pm to
Now let's just hope that the west side doesn't get it's shite together
Posted by theOG
Member since Feb 2010
10835 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:39 pm to
quote:

Wondering if the models are going to shift more due to the speed and motion it's going in now.


East or west?
Posted by jlc05
Member since Nov 2005
33417 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:39 pm to
10% chance of 110 mph
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:41 pm to
This loop of Nate is pretty crazy. It almost looks like it was sped up in the last hour or so as the central dense overcast blew up and surrounded the center.



Source GOES - 16
Posted by lsulaker
BR
Member since Jan 2009
1476 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:42 pm to
Crazy this storm isn’t getting more attention. To summarize recent info, we basically know the course now. Intensity is to be determined but def more than expected. We will lose a good bit more coast/marsh from this. A lot of the tip may be underwater early Sunday am unless it goes further east. Gulfport will take it pretty hard regardless.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177373 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:42 pm to
This better not shift back west if it decides to bottom out tonight. No chance of getting people out of New Orleans in 12 hours as a cat 3 freight trains towards them.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21548 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:42 pm to
Wow... just hope we don't see a pin hole eye pop out overnight

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:43 pm to
GFS through 48 hours:

Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43457 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:43 pm to
As Boat said earlier, if this storm was moving 10 mph and not 22, this is Major Hurricane number what? 5?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:44 pm to
Between the gif I posted and the one you posted, this page loads at a crawl.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43457 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:45 pm to
quote:

Wow... just hope we don't see a pin hole eye pop out overnight



GLad you said this because I was thinking damn im gonna wake up tm morning with a storm and a exposed eye.

People need to wake up.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147175 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:45 pm to
quote:

000
WTNT61 KNHC 070329
TCUAT1

Hurricane Nate Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
1030 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017

...NATE BECOMES A HURRICANE...

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just penetrated the
center of Nate and reported hurricane-force winds. The maximum
winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1030 PM CDT...0330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 86.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Avila
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:46 pm to
That's why I'm curious to see if the models shift it more westward or east. Looked like it was getting faster. Will be interesting to see what this storm is doing when I wake up tomorrow.

I'm glad I took this storm seriously and prepared early. I think it's going to catch a lot of people by surprise.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 10:48 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:46 pm to
Welp, not what you want to see...



95 mph winds justttt above the surface, and 110 mph winds not much further up.
This post was edited on 10/6/17 at 10:48 pm
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:47 pm to
75 max

And yet again fear mongerers are out in full force
Posted by purplepylon
NOLA & Laffy
Member since Nov 2005
8427 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:47 pm to
NHC shifts track to east.
Less than an hour later, GFS run shifts it's path back to west over Louisiana.
It's going to keep doing this all day tomorrow, which is why I don't understand why they took a majority of Louisiana out of the cone
Posted by MrSmith
Member since Sep 2009
8319 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:47 pm to
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:48 pm to
It looked like it's been going straight north. They expecting it to shift Northwest now? According to that gif
Posted by jlc05
Member since Nov 2005
33417 posts
Posted on 10/6/17 at 10:48 pm to
This one is challenging the NHC
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