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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Milton - The Cleanup Begins...
Posted on 10/6/24 at 5:45 pm to NorthEndZone
Posted on 10/6/24 at 5:45 pm to NorthEndZone
F that model
1
Posted on 10/6/24 at 5:47 pm to Penn
Currently some impressive, violent convection wrapping around the center
Nice to see The Weather Channel doing live coverage of this important storm…not! They need to quit this discovery channel crap, especially now
Nice to see The Weather Channel doing live coverage of this important storm…not! They need to quit this discovery channel crap, especially now
This post was edited on 10/6/24 at 5:49 pm
Posted on 10/6/24 at 5:47 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
What kind of pictures/videos should we be taking …?
Clearly, you know the answer.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 5:54 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
What's this little nugget in the path of Milton just North of the Yucatan
Scorpion Reef.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 5:57 pm to LanierSpots
I used this advice after Hurricane Ida decided to relocate my tree to my living room:
Hey OP... I used to be the guy who worked for insurance companies, and determined the value of every little thing in your house. The guy who would go head-to-head with those fire-truck-chasing professional loss adjusters. I may be able to help you not get screwed when filing your claim.
Our goal was to use the information you provided, and give the lowest damn value we can possibly justify for your item.
For instance, if all you say was "toaster" -- we would come up with a cheap-as-frick $4.88 toaster from Walmart, meant to toast one side of one piece of bread at a time. And we would do that for every thing you have ever owned. We had private master lists of the most commonly used descriptions, and what the cheapest viable replacements were. We also had wholesale pricing on almost everything out there, so really scored cheap prices to quote. To further that example:
If you said "toaster - $25" , we would have to be within -20% of that... so, we would find something that's pretty much dead-on $20.01.
If you said "toaster- $200" , we'd kick it back and say NEED MORE INFO, because that's a ridiculous price for a toaster (with no other information given.)
If you said "toaster, from Walmart" , you're getting that $4.88 one.
If you said "toaster, from Macys" , you'd be more likely to get a $25-35 one.
If you said "toaster", and all your other kitchen appliances were Jenn Air / Kitchenaid / etc., you would probably get a matching one.
If you said "Proctor Silex 42888 2-Slice Toaster from Wamart, $9", you just got yourself $9.
If you said "High-end Toaster, Stainless Steel, Blue glowing power button" ... you might get $35-50 instead. We had to match all features that were listed.
I'm not telling you to lie on your claim. Not at all. That would be illegal, and could cause much bigger issues (i.e., invalidating the entire claim). But on the flip side, it's not always advantageous to tell the whole truth every time. Pay attention to those last two examples.
I remember one specific customer... he had some old, piece of shite projector (from mid-late 90s) that could stream a equally piece of shite consumer camcorder. Worth like $5 at a scrap yard. It had some oddball fricking resolution it could record at, though -- and the guy strongly insisted that we replace with "Like Kind And Quality" (trigger words). Ended up being a $65k replacement, because the only camera on the market happened to be a high-end professional video camera (as in, for shooting actual movies). $65-goddam-thousand-dollars because he knew that loophole, and researched his shite.
Remember to list fricking every -- even the most mundane fricking bullshite you can think of. For example, if I was writing up the shower in my bathroom:
Designer Shower Curtain - $35
Matching Shower Curtain Liner for Designer Shower Curtain - $15
Shower Curtain Rings x20 - $15
Stainless Steel Soap Dispenser for Shower - $35
Natural Sponge Loofah - from Whole Foods - $15
Natural Sponge Loofah for Back - from Whole Foods - $19
Holder for Loofahs - $20
Bars of soap - from Lush - $12 each (qty: 4)
Bath bomb - from Lush - $12
High end shampoo - from salon - $40
High end conditioner - from salon - $40
Refining pore mask - from salon - $55
I could probably keep thinking, and bring it up to about $400 for the contents of my shower. Nothing there is "unreasonable" , nothing there is clearly out of place, nothing seems obviously fake. The prices are a little on the high-end, but the reality is, some people have expensive shite -- it won't actually get questioned. No claims adjuster is going to bother nitpicking over the cost of fricking Lush bath bombs, when there is a 20,000 item file to go through. The adjuster has other shite to do, too.
Most people writing claims for a total loss wouldn't even bother with the shower (it's just some used soap and sponges..) -- and those people would be losing out on $400.
Some things require documentation & ages. If you say "tv - $2,000" -- you're getting a 32" LCD, unless you can provide it was from the last year or two w/ receipts. Hopefully you have a good paper trail from credit/debit card expenditure / product registrations / etc.
If you're missing paper trails for things that were legitimately expensive -- go through every photo you can find that was taken in your house. Any parties you may have thrown, and guests put pics up on Facebook. Maybe an Imgur photo of your cat, hiding under a coffee table you think you purchased from Restoration Hardware. Like... seriously... come up with any evidence you possibly can, for anything that could possibly be deemed expensive.
The fire-truck chasing loss adjusters are evil sons of bitches, but, they actually do provide some value. You will definitely get more money, even if they take a cut. But all they're really doing, is just nitpicking the ever-living-shite out of everything you possibly owned, and writing them all up "creatively" for the insurance company to process.
Sometimes people would come back to us with "updated* claims. They tried it on their own, and listed stuff like "toaster", "microwave", "tv" .. and weren't happy with what they got back. So they hired a fire-truck chaser, and re-submitted with "more information." I have absolutely seen claims go from under $7k calculated, to over $100k calculated. (It's amazing what can happen when people suddenly "remember" their entire wardrobe came from Nordstrom.)
Hey OP... I used to be the guy who worked for insurance companies, and determined the value of every little thing in your house. The guy who would go head-to-head with those fire-truck-chasing professional loss adjusters. I may be able to help you not get screwed when filing your claim.
Our goal was to use the information you provided, and give the lowest damn value we can possibly justify for your item.
For instance, if all you say was "toaster" -- we would come up with a cheap-as-frick $4.88 toaster from Walmart, meant to toast one side of one piece of bread at a time. And we would do that for every thing you have ever owned. We had private master lists of the most commonly used descriptions, and what the cheapest viable replacements were. We also had wholesale pricing on almost everything out there, so really scored cheap prices to quote. To further that example:
If you said "toaster - $25" , we would have to be within -20% of that... so, we would find something that's pretty much dead-on $20.01.
If you said "toaster- $200" , we'd kick it back and say NEED MORE INFO, because that's a ridiculous price for a toaster (with no other information given.)
If you said "toaster, from Walmart" , you're getting that $4.88 one.
If you said "toaster, from Macys" , you'd be more likely to get a $25-35 one.
If you said "toaster", and all your other kitchen appliances were Jenn Air / Kitchenaid / etc., you would probably get a matching one.
If you said "Proctor Silex 42888 2-Slice Toaster from Wamart, $9", you just got yourself $9.
If you said "High-end Toaster, Stainless Steel, Blue glowing power button" ... you might get $35-50 instead. We had to match all features that were listed.
I'm not telling you to lie on your claim. Not at all. That would be illegal, and could cause much bigger issues (i.e., invalidating the entire claim). But on the flip side, it's not always advantageous to tell the whole truth every time. Pay attention to those last two examples.
I remember one specific customer... he had some old, piece of shite projector (from mid-late 90s) that could stream a equally piece of shite consumer camcorder. Worth like $5 at a scrap yard. It had some oddball fricking resolution it could record at, though -- and the guy strongly insisted that we replace with "Like Kind And Quality" (trigger words). Ended up being a $65k replacement, because the only camera on the market happened to be a high-end professional video camera (as in, for shooting actual movies). $65-goddam-thousand-dollars because he knew that loophole, and researched his shite.
Remember to list fricking every -- even the most mundane fricking bullshite you can think of. For example, if I was writing up the shower in my bathroom:
Designer Shower Curtain - $35
Matching Shower Curtain Liner for Designer Shower Curtain - $15
Shower Curtain Rings x20 - $15
Stainless Steel Soap Dispenser for Shower - $35
Natural Sponge Loofah - from Whole Foods - $15
Natural Sponge Loofah for Back - from Whole Foods - $19
Holder for Loofahs - $20
Bars of soap - from Lush - $12 each (qty: 4)
Bath bomb - from Lush - $12
High end shampoo - from salon - $40
High end conditioner - from salon - $40
Refining pore mask - from salon - $55
I could probably keep thinking, and bring it up to about $400 for the contents of my shower. Nothing there is "unreasonable" , nothing there is clearly out of place, nothing seems obviously fake. The prices are a little on the high-end, but the reality is, some people have expensive shite -- it won't actually get questioned. No claims adjuster is going to bother nitpicking over the cost of fricking Lush bath bombs, when there is a 20,000 item file to go through. The adjuster has other shite to do, too.
Most people writing claims for a total loss wouldn't even bother with the shower (it's just some used soap and sponges..) -- and those people would be losing out on $400.
Some things require documentation & ages. If you say "tv - $2,000" -- you're getting a 32" LCD, unless you can provide it was from the last year or two w/ receipts. Hopefully you have a good paper trail from credit/debit card expenditure / product registrations / etc.
If you're missing paper trails for things that were legitimately expensive -- go through every photo you can find that was taken in your house. Any parties you may have thrown, and guests put pics up on Facebook. Maybe an Imgur photo of your cat, hiding under a coffee table you think you purchased from Restoration Hardware. Like... seriously... come up with any evidence you possibly can, for anything that could possibly be deemed expensive.
The fire-truck chasing loss adjusters are evil sons of bitches, but, they actually do provide some value. You will definitely get more money, even if they take a cut. But all they're really doing, is just nitpicking the ever-living-shite out of everything you possibly owned, and writing them all up "creatively" for the insurance company to process.
Sometimes people would come back to us with "updated* claims. They tried it on their own, and listed stuff like "toaster", "microwave", "tv" .. and weren't happy with what they got back. So they hired a fire-truck chaser, and re-submitted with "more information." I have absolutely seen claims go from under $7k calculated, to over $100k calculated. (It's amazing what can happen when people suddenly "remember" their entire wardrobe came from Nordstrom.)
This post was edited on 10/7/24 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:00 pm to Rashcock
quote:
Rashcock
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:05 pm to 4
quote:
4
Any issues with me adding this to the OP for folks?
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:08 pm to RummelTiger
Milton was the name chosen to replace Michael after it was retired.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:15 pm to schwartzy
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:17 pm to RummelTiger
I’m sure his fingers are wore out after all that typing.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:18 pm to 4
Thank you so much. And to the other advice. We are going to be busy tomorrow. I think I am going to go ahead and put my storm shutters up as well.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:18 pm to dukke v
quote:
I’m sure his fingers are wore out after all that typing.
Highly appreciated though.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:19 pm to LanierSpots
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:20 pm to LanierSpots
Should we make a list of posters in the areas that are potentially going to be affected???
Someone In The Helene thread asked if there was a list and there was not.
Someone In The Helene thread asked if there was a list and there was not.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:20 pm to LanierSpots
Yes it was epic… 
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:21 pm to RummelTiger
Mrs. Rebel and oldest child are going to ride this one out in Venice, FL. House is supposedly "hurricane proof". But that really means it's just hurricane resistant.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:25 pm to tiger91
We moved our Wednesday afternoon Orlando flight to Tuesday morning at Fort Lauderdale. Wedding I'm in shouldn't be affected unless the building comes crumbling down.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:26 pm to Rebel
quote:
Mrs. Rebel and oldest child are going to ride this one out in Venice, FL. House is supposedly "hurricane proof". But that really means it's just hurricane resistant.
Buddy...you sure? That could be a rough spot.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:28 pm to Rebel
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
Milton is rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate very
deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to
appear. The last fix from the aircraft showed that the
central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80
minutes prior, and winds supporting 70 kt at the surface. Since
that time, satellite images continue to show further organization,
and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt.
Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This
equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a
stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves
across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton. This
evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and
then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the
Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas. The
NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours,
following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government
of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern
coast of Yucatan. Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly
north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the
forecast near Florida. It should be noted that the average NHC track
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on
the exact track.
The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within
light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and
some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this
system and listen to local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
Milton is rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate very
deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to
appear. The last fix from the aircraft showed that the
central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80
minutes prior, and winds supporting 70 kt at the surface. Since
that time, satellite images continue to show further organization,
and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt.
Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This
equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a
stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves
across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton. This
evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and
then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the
Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas. The
NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours,
following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government
of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern
coast of Yucatan. Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly
north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the
forecast near Florida. It should be noted that the average NHC track
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on
the exact track.
The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within
light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is
about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with
almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in
the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus
model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and
some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing
confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards
will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the
middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this
system and listen to local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Posted on 10/6/24 at 6:28 pm to Rebel
If they need anything baw let me know.
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