re: Hurricane Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast

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We’re supposed to be going to Fairhope Friday afternoon through the weekend for our anniversary. Looks like it’s getting the eye late Friday night.

Is this one weak enough to chance it?

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I think you'll be fine as long as you're staying in a hotel which should obviously have a generator. Very good chance of losing power in an Airbnb, house, apartment, etc though.

Judging strictly by the very latest forecast this one shouldn't be as bad as Hurricane Sally which rapidly intensified from a minimal Cat 1 to a high end Cat 2 (105 mph max sustained winds) as it crawled through the area at 3 mph.

This one looks to peak at a Cat 3 before weakening to a borderline Cat 1/Cat 2 at landfall as it races through the area. The weather may actually be fairly nice by late Saturday afternoon. All depends on how many restaurants, bars, etc lose and therefore may not have power while you're over there

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you would think with with the advancements in AI this would be solved. i’m not impressed that’s all i’m saying, looks like we’re still just guessing

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Damn dude take the L. The amount of competing variables in weather make it virtually impossible to predict to the level of precision that would impress you.

I’m actually very impressed with how far this science has come in my lifetime. This storm, for example, was predicted maybe a week ago, and the past 48 hours have given a pretty clear expectation of what we are seeing now. 3 days from landfall, it just formed last night into a clearly identifiable weather system that can even have a trajectory. What more do you really want?

And besides, hurricanes themselves have a ton of variability in terms of symmetry, size, rain, how fast they move, etc that can’t reasonably be reflected in the cone forecasts.

Pics aren't loading for some reason.

Models are all over the place like they're drinking and taking bets on who can do it better.

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Recon plane found the center was about 20 miles north and a little west of where the estimated location was tracked. This should have a short-term impact on the next set of model runs.

The 4 AM advisory forecast for 1 PM today was 22.2 N. It is already at 22.4 N based on recon plane. Not a huge difference overall, but may change the next set of model runs a little due to the updated initial position.

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somehow this will throw lafourche and terrebonne right into the center

Now Ross is gonna tell us how this is Lane Kiffin’s fault after Sankey sends him talking points

The Refresh button is getting worn out right now, especially with a possible shift West.

If the official NHC forecast is correct the wind and rain with the core of the storm will be north of Tuscaloosa by mid to late Saturday afternoon.

Tuscaloosa could very well get high end tropical storm force wind gusts when/if the core of the storm passes through but it shouldn't be enough to cause widespread power outages.

The core of the storm passes through around noon so tailgating weather could be a bit wild. Could be some issues for any tents that aren't well secured

Not to mention Crusing the Coast. The Mississippi Coast is a little close for comfort.

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And besides, hurricanes themselves have a ton of variability in terms of symmetry, size, rain, how fast they move, etc that can’t reasonably be reflected in the cone forecasts.

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No man frick that Kraft on Tigerdroppings thinks they should have had this thing nailed down a week ago