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re: Hurricane Isaias - Approaching Landfall in the FL Panhandle

Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:21 pm to
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
133453 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:21 pm to
quote:

My brother lives in Navarre just called me and said it’s a nothing burger there. Power on, rain with slight wind just chilling.


Hes in for a rude awakening
Posted by Sampson
10th state chartered
Member since Mar 2012
25253 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:23 pm to
I texted him that the OT said buckle up buddy. He is very unbothered
Posted by angryslugs
Member since Apr 2008
11727 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:23 pm to
quote:

My brother lives in Navarre just called me and said it’s a nothing burger there. Power on, rain with slight wind just chilling.


This is the equivalent of posting “game over” after the opening drive.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14803 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:24 pm to
quote:

Looks like Navarre / Mary Esther / FWB gonna get the brunt of it


Yeah. The last Vortex message had the eye 30 miles in diameter.

With hurricane force winds extending 35 miles from center, that means the areas 15 to 35 miles east of the center landfall point will get the hurricane force winds without being in the eye.

That area is Mary Esther and FWB (+ Eglin AFB, Shalimar, Ocean City, Wright) with Destin being right on the edge of the hurricane force winds. Navarre will get the northern and southern eyewalls but will likely get the eye and have at least a brief break.

Pensacola will be very close to the western eye/eyewall boundary.
Posted by Govt Tide
Member since Nov 2009
9633 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:25 pm to
quote:

Here is where the shear becomes a bad thing. It will help with tornado production as this moves onshore.


How does the the hurricane's forecasted bend from a nne to nnw motion in response to the high pressure in the traditional "wedge" influencing it at landfall affect the tornado threat?

Where the warm moist humid onshore flow begins to meet resistance from that area of relatively high(er) pressure and relatively dryer from the Carolinas down into Georgia would seem in my uneducated opinion to create a boundary and an enhanced area of shear over eastern Alabama and western Georgia as the hurricane shifts from nne to nnw through Alabama
Posted by AHM21
Member since Feb 2008
33210 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:26 pm to
quote:

ISAIAS AT 4:00

Sustained winds 115 mph
Located about 125 miles south/southeast of Mobile
Moving north at 17 mph

*Landfall comes around 7pm CT near Navarre Beach with winds around 100-105 mph

*Storm surge of 6-9 ft from the AL/FL Border to Grayton Beach
*Storm surge of 4-6 ft for the Alabama Gulf Coast including Dauphin Island
*Storm surge of 3-5 ft for Lower Mobile Bay
*Storm surge of 2-4 ft for Upper Mobile Bay

*Highest tornado risk over the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the southeast tip of Alabama

*Rain amounts 4-6 inches near the coast, 2-3 inches for most of inland Alabama.

*Wind is the BIG issue. Winds at hurricane force on the coast. Due to the accelerating forward speed and expanding wind field, most all of inland Alabama could see gusts to 50/60 mph overnight tonight. This will likely create major power outages and considerable tree damage.

*Winds will diminish late tomorrow morning, and by tomorrow night the weather will be completely dry with lighter wind.

Please continue to watch our live coverage on the Alabama Weather Network!


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Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
52528 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:27 pm to
Outer edge of the eyewall is nearing shore. Gonna be rough between Pensacola and Panama City Beach.
Posted by LPLGTiger
Member since May 2013
2779 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:30 pm to
quote:

My brother lives in Navarre just called me and said it’s a nothing burger there. Power on, rain with slight wind just chilling.


No better time to join TD than in the eye of a hurricane. Tell him to sign on and give us live updates.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15907 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:34 pm to
quote:

with Destin being right on the edge of the hurricane force winds.


Idk its not going 0 degrees north, its like 10 degrees north. So like NNNNE.

Radar might be a wobble but I would be shocked if destin got nail with the eyewall
Posted by Triple Bogey
19th Green
Member since May 2017
6943 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:34 pm to
Live cams just shut off in perdido key. Think the power is out.

ETA: Anybody on the ground?
This post was edited on 10/9/26 at 4:35 pm
Posted by Sput
Member since Mar 2020
9233 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:39 pm to
quote:

This is the equivalent of posting “game over” after the opening drive.


More like after getting off the bus
Posted by awestruck
Member since Jan 2015
15110 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:42 pm to
quote:

quote:
This is the equivalent of posting “game over” after the opening drive.



More like after getting off the bus
before seeing the competition
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14803 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:43 pm to
Alabama already with over 42K out of power. Florida over 26K so far.
Posted by Bama and Beer
Daphne, AL
Member since Oct 2010
85969 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:44 pm to
In Daphne, AL , very close to the Bay still with power. It's blinked a few times but not off yet.
Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30758 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:46 pm to
I have still have power on my ring cameras in perdido
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
52528 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:47 pm to
quote:

My brother lives in Navarre just called me and said it’s a nothing burger there. Power on, rain with slight wind just chilling.

Well he’s about to get the eye wall so we will see if that changes.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14803 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:47 pm to
quote:

I would be shocked if destin got nail with the eyewall


I was just saying the minimal hurricane force winds may be getting to west side of Destin. I'm defining the eyewall as about 10 miles wide where the Cat 2/3 winds are (my arbitrary definition). I agree that Destin will probably only get hurricane force gusts and maybe sustained on west end.
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
52528 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:49 pm to
Posted by BamaFan247
Alabama
Member since Dec 2010
106 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

I have still have power on my ring cameras in perdido

Same for GS
Posted by PT24-7
Member since Jul 2013
4597 posts
Posted on 10/9/26 at 4:51 pm to
Power just went out in Panama City
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