re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

How big is the eye and how far do hurricane force winds extend? How far out are Cat 5 force winds?

Cuba going to get hit at all?

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Starting to think hunkering down here in Orlando might not be such a good idea.

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All my buddies in Orlando are hunkering down I believe - I'd probably head out with my wife and daughter if I was there, but they're all single and invincible.

18z GFS is running now.

The facebook live map is legit. Couple of people live streaming from T&C islands.

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How big is the eye and how far do hurricane force winds extend?

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At their maximum right now, hurricane fore winds extend 90 nautical miles form the center.

Category 5 wind probably don't extent further than 5-10 miles from the edge of the eye.

The projected tidal surge for Turks & Caicos is 15-20 ft. The highest point of the island chain is Blue Hills which is only 161 ft above sea level.

Just got a recent update from our weather service. Not pretty.

Key Points
1. We have adjusted Irma's track across Florida about 25 miles to the west.
2. Max sustained winds at landfall in Florida may be 150 mph.
3. Final landfall is predicted to occur around noon Monday on the central Georgia coast with max winds of 110 mph.

Our Forecast
Irma is approaching the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Inagua Islands this afternoon. A reconnaissance plane inside Irma found winds up to 175 mph earlier this afternoon. New model guidance from this morning has shifted westward into the Florida Peninsula. The best-performing model over the past five days, the European model, shifted 30-40 miles west in this morning's run, taking Irma into the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula and right up the central peninsula to Georgia. In consideration to this well-performing model, we have adjusted our track about 25 miles west in this advisory. If the westward trend continues in the models, then we may make additional adjustments to the west in future advisories.

Our track takes Irma to the west-northwest until early Saturday morning, followed by a northward turn that takes the center inland and just west of Miami around sunrise on Sunday. Models have been indicating that Irma could be strengthening as it makes the northward turn. We are indicating that Irma will reach Florida with max sustained winds of 150 mph with gusts to 180 mph. Irma should slowly weaken as it tracks inland near the east coast of Florida on Sunday. Final landfall is predicted to be on the mid-coast of Georgia by noon on Monday as a Category 2 hurricane with max winds of 110 mph. Note that we have a below-average confidence in this final landfall intensity, as there is much uncertainty as to how land interaction will affect Irma's intensity on Sunday.

Expected Impacts on Land:
Bahamas/Turks and Caicos Islands: Significant destruction is expected for the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands within 50 miles of Irma's track. Widespread power outages and minor damage would be possible in the Northwest Bahamas.
Southeast Florida Peninsula: Widespread power outages that last for several weeks are becoming more likely, along with major damage from wind and storm surge.

Georgia and Southern Carolina Coast: Widespread damage from wind and tidal surge possible. Power outages may last for weeks.
The next advisory will be issued by 10 PM EDT/AST

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Starting to think hunkering down here in Orlando might not be such a good idea.

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you should be ok if you are prepared and stay in a safe room. The main threat will be from falling trees. But 100mph winds will make a mess that will take while to clean up.

But how long do you think power will be out?