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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:43 pm to Golfer
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:43 pm to Golfer
It's a unique situation with a high end tropical cyclone close enough to fly so many missions and close enough to a bunch of radar sites to have a radar loop of an extended run Cat 5 in action.
They're mining this bastard for all the data it's worth no doubt.
They're mining this bastard for all the data it's worth no doubt.
0
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:44 pm to Golfer
quote:
I feel like NOAA is constantly flying the plane through this storm. SO MUCH DATA!
each low level recon mission goes through the eye 4 times... but yeah seemingly every time a low level mission ends a new 1 begins
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:46 pm to rt3
You don't get a shot at a storm like this very often (thankfully) and with today's technology get all you can!
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:52 pm to slackster
Just got the phonecall, headed to St. Croix for airevac missions
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 12:02 am
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:52 pm to DoUrden
look who shows up in hour 240... potential Lee
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:54 pm to TennesseeFan25
quote:
Just got the phonecall, headed to St. Crois for airevac missions
Stay safe and do good work!!!
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:55 pm to rt3
quote:
look who shows up in hour 240... potential Lee
frick this hurricane season already, no more needed!
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:58 pm to DoUrden
We've had a pretty easy go of it the last several years. I guess 2017 is when we pay the piper.
Godspeed to all in the path of this storm.
Godspeed to all in the path of this storm.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:01 am to TennesseeFan25
quote:
Just got the phonecall, headed to St. Crois for airevac missions
Are you military or medevac for one of the private companies?
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:03 am to rt3
quote:
potential Lee
A Hurricane named Lee. All hell is gonna break loose.
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 10:33 am
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:05 am to rt3
rt3, this post is for you. Some fine soul at storm2k graphed out average forecast error in position for Irma vs # of hours out.
The Euro has outperformed everyone even the NHC, though their error is all early on. Error rate slowing down as the hours go out, pretty impressive.
Now for the poor performers: the GFS I'm looking at you. The CMC has charted better out to 120 hours. GFS easily the worst performer out past two or three days.
So uh, everyone, don't take the GFS path for much unless King Euro (and Queen UKMet apparently) start lining up on it's solution.
The Euro has outperformed everyone even the NHC, though their error is all early on. Error rate slowing down as the hours go out, pretty impressive.
Now for the poor performers: the GFS I'm looking at you. The CMC has charted better out to 120 hours. GFS easily the worst performer out past two or three days.
So uh, everyone, don't take the GFS path for much unless King Euro (and Queen UKMet apparently) start lining up on it's solution.
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 12:07 am
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:05 am to Tiger in NY
quote:
A Hurricane named Lee. All hell is gonna break lose.
the recurve is there... Mitch may luck out
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:08 am to Duke
I'm not taking any of these models as gospel truth... I know there's a lot of movement
but I love anomalies
but I love anomalies
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:09 am to rt3
quote:
I'm not taking any of these models as gospel truth... I know there's a lot of movement
My last sentence wasn't at you.
You've been all over the model runs, I thought you'd like to see how they've all done. You've done everyone a hand showing the model runs and recon reports in this thread. My post was something I thought would be interesting to you since you've really dived deep in the models over the past week or two.
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 12:13 am
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:12 am to Duke
quote:
My last sentence wasn't at you.
You've been all over the model runs, I thought you'd like to see how they've all done.
oh cool... I wasn't understanding the point you were trying to make (let's just say Irma's screwed up my sleep pattern)
thanks for the info... I appreciate it
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:13 am to rt3
Someone posted an image that Malware doesn't like...lol
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:13 am to Duke
I love that plot.
Is positional error in time exponential?
It sure does look like it for that plot.
I'd love to this plot for recent storms.
Run a little non-linear mixed model action with an exponential distribution
ETA:
Oceanographer with stats masters
Is positional error in time exponential?
It sure does look like it for that plot.
I'd love to this plot for recent storms.
Run a little non-linear mixed model action with an exponential distribution
ETA:
Oceanographer with stats masters
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 12:16 am
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:15 am to gaetti15
hopefully new dropsonde data will be in in like 15 minutes or so
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:16 am to DoUrden
plane data in the eye
Posted on 9/7/17 at 12:16 am to gaetti15
quote:
Is positional error in time exponential?
You'd have to think so for a computer model. A mistake in step one is feed into step two and the errors propogate and impact more and more of the simulation.
quote:
Run a little non-linear mixed model action with an exponential distribution
Oh sweet statistics. That'd be pretty cool to see the result of.
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