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Started By
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1
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:38 pm to rds dc
Through 24h, 00z GFS has Irma slightly south of 18z, the trough is shallower, Katia is stronger and ridging across the northern Gulf is a bit stronger.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:38 pm to Hangit
I live a half a mile from Sunrise but don't go often this time of year. The in-laws are snowbirds from NY and when they're here they go every damn day and unfortunately I get dragged along quite often. Good food though. Always busy.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:38 pm to Cosmo
I should have know that 
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:39 pm to RatLTrap
60 hrs is the consensus before losing Cat 5 status.
Sat morning could be Cat 5 at landfall?
Sat morning could be Cat 5 at landfall?
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:42 pm to Ed Osteen
~ 1 hr 45 min between pass #2 in the eye and pass #3 of the current mission
movement +0.2 N +0.5 W
overall mission movement... +0.3N +0.9W
pressure on drop #3... 920mb (+3mb from last drop... +4mb mission overall)
movement +0.2 N +0.5 W
overall mission movement... +0.3N +0.9W
pressure on drop #3... 920mb (+3mb from last drop... +4mb mission overall)
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:42 pm to rds dc
quote:
maybe Irma pulls the same trick as yesterday?
That would be something. Perhaps there's something to be said for ERC when conditions aren't ideal (dry air entrainment, ect) and when they're close to ideal when the hurricane is rocking out cat 4-5 winds and pressures.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:47 pm to Duke
ERC?
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:47 pm to Duke
oh goodness... this run puts Jose too close to these just devastated islands
ETA: in fact it seems to brush some of them
ETA: in fact it seems to brush some of them
This post was edited on 9/6/17 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:47 pm to Duke
quote:
Perhaps there's something to be said for ERC when conditions aren't ideal (dry air entrainment, ect) and when they're close to ideal when the hurricane is rocking out cat 4-5 winds and pressures.
I would totally imagine that is the case. I mean we don't know what a "true" ERC cycle looks like, especially since perfect and ideal conditions never exist in nature.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:48 pm to BPTiger
quote:
ERC?
Eyewall Replacement Cycle
a new eyewall contracts in and takes over from the current one
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:48 pm to BPTiger
quote:
ERC
Eye wall replacement cycle
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:50 pm to Duke
quote:
That would be something. Perhaps there's something to be said for ERC when conditions aren't ideal (dry air entrainment, ect) and when they're close to ideal when the hurricane is rocking out cat 4-5 winds and pressures
That could be. We have never had this level of data for a system like this. This is ground breaking and lots of research will come from the data being collected.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:50 pm to gaetti15
Ya nm.. too many beers to work out acronyms atm
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:53 pm to gaetti15
So the NE most Lesser Antilles islands might get some of Jose, man this sucks.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:58 pm to DoUrden
quote:
So the NE most Lesser Antilles islands might get some of Jose, man this sucks.
GFS has Jose passing through Barbuda in 60 hours - the same island that was just smoked by Irma.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:00 pm to slackster
Well theres nothing left of Barbuda so theres that
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:04 pm to Cosmo
think AF309's mission is done after just 3 drops in the eye
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:06 pm to rds dc
quote:
CAT5 Hurricane Irma - Breaks World Record for Consecutive Hours at 185 mph
Congratulations?
Posted on 9/6/17 at 11:07 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Well theres nothing left of Barbuda so theres that
Didn't Irma leave 10% of the buildings standing? Jose says no way.
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