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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:59 pm to slackster
Posted on 8/29/18 at 6:59 pm to slackster
Issac seems like the consistent SE to NW push to compare to, not that I remember the exact drivers of Issac's path and if they compare to this wave. It's not wrong to compare to Andrew's steering or anything, but that's a big gun to throw out when Issac had a similar track to the expected one of this wave and likely a closer analog in expected strength.
1
Posted on 8/29/18 at 7:02 pm to Duke
quote:
It's not wrong to compare to Andrew's steering or anything, but that's a big gun to throw out when Issac had a similar track to the expected one of this wave and likely a closer analog in expected strength
Piss on that, keep throwing out major landfalling US systems that crossed FL then recurved in the central Gulf coast.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 7:11 pm to slackster
So obviously Betsy.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 8:10 pm to rds dc
The distrubance off the coast of Africa is expected to stay in the central Atlantic.
There is a system not yet designated that is about halfway between Africa and the Caribbean that is not expected to develop as it moves over the islands but may develop as it enters the Gulf mid week after Labor Day. Right now best info I have seen makes it a South Florida issue.
There is a system not yet designated that is about halfway between Africa and the Caribbean that is not expected to develop as it moves over the islands but may develop as it enters the Gulf mid week after Labor Day. Right now best info I have seen makes it a South Florida issue.
Posted on 8/29/18 at 10:10 pm to Ba Ba Boooey
He could’ve mentioned the steering current of other hurricanes or not mentioned any other storms at all especially since there is no actual storm to talk about
Posted on 8/29/18 at 10:52 pm to Midtiger farm
I agree with that point. Just saying I didn’t read it and think Andrew was coming.
rds should give him lessons on his wording
rds should give him lessons on his wording
This post was edited on 8/29/18 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 8/29/18 at 10:58 pm to rds dc
Not to worry this storm is a fish.
Posted on 8/30/18 at 7:46 am to rds dc
Please update OP. 
Posted on 8/30/18 at 7:46 am to Ex-Popcorn
Nothing super new.
GFS now developes something in the gulf next week and pushes a weak system into Texas. Euro keeps development as well, with a weak TS taking the Katrina/Betsy doom path.
GFS now developes something in the gulf next week and pushes a weak system into Texas. Euro keeps development as well, with a weak TS taking the Katrina/Betsy doom path.
Posted on 8/30/18 at 7:57 am to rds dc
For the current system coming off of Africa... Is it using heavy historic data for current projected path or is there steering out there to pull it up the Atlantic?
Posted on 8/30/18 at 8:54 am to rds dc
quote:
We are watching an unorganized tropical wave which may move into the Gulf next week. No development is expected at this time. We remind you we are in the middle of hurricane season, so as always, keep an eye on the tropics. #LAwx #MSwx #HurricaneSeason
Update from NWS New Orleans.
Posted on 8/30/18 at 8:54 am to rds dc
Officially Tropical Storm Florence formed off the coast of Africa
Posted on 8/30/18 at 9:17 am to rds dc
quote:
NHC will initiate advisories at 11 am EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, located east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
NHC tweet
Posted on 8/30/18 at 10:24 am to rds dc
Convection increasing with Virgin Islands Tropical Wave.
Posted on 8/30/18 at 11:21 am to Duke
Don't like that thing drifting so far west on GFS. Seems like with each day it has less projected shearing on it yet they're agreeing it's going to hit Gulf.
Posted on 8/30/18 at 11:47 am to deuce985
More time over open water isnt great, so the GFS solution is troublesome. It's still just a persistent wave currently and isn't expected to close it's self off until in the Gulf, if it manages to at all.
A path over the central gulf has plenty of energy for it to take off, but it'll need to be somewhat together first.
A path over the central gulf has plenty of energy for it to take off, but it'll need to be somewhat together first.
Posted on 8/30/18 at 12:52 pm to Duke
1. A tropical wave located over the north-central Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending
from Hispaniola northeastward across the northeastern Caribbean Sea
and adjacent Atlantic waters. This activity is forecast to spread
westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are
expected to prevent any significant development of this system
during the next several days. Environmental conditions could become
more conducive when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early next week. Regardless of development, this system could
produce enhanced rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and Florida into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six are issued
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
Forecaster Brennan
This post was edited on 8/30/18 at 1:00 pm
Posted on 8/30/18 at 1:04 pm to lsuman25
And here we go...
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