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Message

re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:31 am to
Posted by CorkSoaker
Member since Oct 2008
9823 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:31 am to
Sunny and bright in Biloxi. Heading to the pool now
Posted by Tbonepatron
Member since Aug 2013
8462 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:33 am to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:33 am to
quote:



That's 250 hours out bro unless the Euro and GFS keep picking up on it nothing to talk about for now.

the 1 that may be worth talking about is that wave behind Florence

that 1 seems to be well south of where Florence started and the models seem to not turn it out to sea... it could be a US problem at some point
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:35 am to
Yup I mentioned that one yesterday it has a possibility it could drift as far west into the gulf. Still way too early to worry about that one too though.

Looks like Gordon is trying to organize and strengthen again
This post was edited on 9/4/18 at 10:35 am
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:36 am to
quote:

Yup I mentioned that one yesterday it has a possibility it could drift as far west into the gulf. Still way too early to worry about that one too though.

Looks like Gordon is trying to organize and strengthen again

of course

but it's at the time where we all got eyes on Gordon... but let's keep that 1 in our peripheral vision for now... so it doesn't just sneak up on anyone

ETA: can we start calling that 1 potential Helene... since it has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 5 days
This post was edited on 9/4/18 at 10:38 am
Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5422 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:40 am to
What surprises me about the new Invest is that the models keep it running low and going through the Caribbean. Usually when there is a hurricane out front it creates a weakness and leaves an escape route for the storms behind it. This one doesn't appear to feel any weakness and continues on West. Definitely one to watch but it is so far out that there is no telling where it will end up.
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12620 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:40 am to
I am really impressed that the Euro model had Gordon’s path and its projected landfall fairly accurate from 5 days ago.
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10129 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:41 am to
Gordan seems to be blowing up but still looks for very lopsided and is hauling arse
Posted by CypressTrout10
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2016
3136 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:44 am to
At this rate it has to make landfall by Midnight I would think

Also, Satellite looks real healthy right now
This post was edited on 9/4/18 at 10:50 am
Posted by ihometiger
Member since Dec 2013
12475 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:45 am to
quote:

Jeff is at it again


Hold onto your beer as you watch
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:53 am to
quote:

Gordan seems to be blowing up but still looks for very lopsided and is hauling arse



Convection is certainly looking better, but the deepest stuff is still east of the center. It's moving too fast I think to really get the deep stuff wrapped around. It's almost creating it's own shear with this forward motion.



White is deeper convection, the gray in the white deeper still.

Here's an example of a much deeper storm using this type of image:

Posted by mightynine
Member since May 2006
1278 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:56 am to
Would you say the storm is heading more north that west in the latest radar frames? (Note I'm trying to guess that from the Weather Channel's tiny arse radar on screen)
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53874 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:57 am to
quote:

Jeff is at it again



Wishcasting a waterspout...look at the waterspout...well it's not a waterspout, but look at that shear.

"Cat 2 is still on the table, most likely a comes in as a Cat 1"

This post was edited on 9/4/18 at 10:57 am
Posted by lsumailman61
Gulf Shores
Member since Oct 2006
7967 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 10:59 am to
I’m worried about the storm surge in Mobile. Secured my oyster farm yesterday but it still makes me nervous. Just put 250k seed out there. I don’t want to have to go on a search party for my cages tomm in the middle of the Bay.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 11:01 am to
quote:


Would you say the storm is heading more north that west in the latest radar frames?


Looks to be on the same heading as earlier per recon fixes. Radar watching for the center is going to be a pain until it gets a little closer, it's so far away from the Mobile station you're getting a view way up in the air.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177204 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 11:01 am to
Jeff is legit retarded.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 11:02 am to
quote:


Jeff is legit retarded.


Makes him the perfect storm chaser for the OT.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 11:07 am to
quote:

but it's at the time where we all got eyes on Gordon... but let's keep that 1 in our peripheral vision for now... so it doesn't just sneak up on anyone ETA: can we start calling that 1 potential Helene... since it has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system over the next 5 days


, no. The one that as a 70% chance of developing is not the same as the one that sneaks into the Gulf of Mexico 10 days from now. They're two separate systems. Neither of them should be more than an afterthought for the next 72 hours.
Posted by Theboot32
Mandeville/Poplarville
Member since Jan 2016
2454 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 11:10 am to
So for Mandeville I'm looking at a little rain and a few wind gusts of about 30 mph, that about it?
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 9/4/18 at 11:11 am to
quote:

Jeff is legit retarded.
quote:

Makes him the perfect storm chaser for the OT.


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