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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:15 am to thesoccerfanjax
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:15 am to thesoccerfanjax
quote:Hurricane winds are spread out that far. Hurricane-force winds will remain there for 24+ hours. They will get 24" plus of rain...
30 miles from the coast is damn far away. It’s not how far you are from the coast, it’s whats around you, waterway wise. Some places 50 miles from the coast, you’d rather be on the beach. Surge gets way more bottlenecked back around the little tributaries inland.
And all of this was the "best-case" scenario for her because at the time people told her to leave, it was a Cat 4.
2
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:16 am to fr33manator
You didn't answer the question.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:16 am to TH03
quote:
But I think you were saying that yesterday about Isaac. Weak now means better chance of hitting the gulf and beefing up?
A stronger storm is more likely to find a weakness in a ridge that allows it to gain latitude.
The Euro ensembles for Isaac:
GFS ensembles:
Not a ton of support from the models for Isaac's development throughout the model guidance time period, but still worth watching.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:16 am to 50_Tiger
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:17 am to thesoccerfanjax
quote:
30 miles from the coast is damn far away. It’s not how far you are from the coast, it’s whats around you, waterway wise. Some places 50 miles from the coast, you’d rather be on the beach.
Bingo.
I'm assuming we are just hearing about flash flooding right now. In the next few days I'm sure there will be major stories of rivers flooding as they crest.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:18 am to ell_13
That’s fine. But you have no idea what that area is like. My point is, 30 miles doesn’t mean anything at all. It could make her situation worse than being at the beach, or better.
I have had people who don’t know my area, telling me to just go inland, anywhere inland, anywhere but the beach. In some cases I have evacuated and in some not. But “anywhere inland” is fricking awful ignorant advice. You gotta know your area.
I have had people who don’t know my area, telling me to just go inland, anywhere inland, anywhere but the beach. In some cases I have evacuated and in some not. But “anywhere inland” is fricking awful ignorant advice. You gotta know your area.
This post was edited on 9/14/18 at 9:20 am
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:20 am to ell_13
quote:
Hurricane winds are spread out that far. Hurricane-force winds will remain there for 24+ hours.
We evacuated to a high and dry area in West Baton Rouge parish for Gustav thinking that was plenty safe enough. The eye ended up passing a little west of us and tore the hell out of the area. The two acre property we were on had three big trees blow over and several large branches come down.
Scared the hell out of us and then there was the issue of no power for a week.
This post was edited on 9/14/18 at 9:21 am
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:20 am to thesoccerfanjax
quote:I do know where she is. She mentioned the area then deleted the post. The last time she posted was 9/12 early in the morning. Hopefully she left.
But you have no idea what that area is like. My point is, 30 miles doesn’t mean anything at all. It could make her situation worse than being at the beach, or better.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:21 am to thesoccerfanjax
quote:This, I agree with.
But “anywhere inland” is fricking awful ignorant advice. You gotta know your area.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:22 am to ell_13
Duration makes all the difference. Gustav rolled in and out of BR in less than 12 hours, the bad wind lasted 6-8 hours, and gusts were barely hurricane force IIRC. Result was power outages for 2 weeks... now the decently populated NC coast is seeing well over hurricane force gusts for 24 hours.
And then of course there's a year's worth of rain in 3 days. And storm surge and battering waves for 2+ days.
And then of course there's a year's worth of rain in 3 days. And storm surge and battering waves for 2+ days.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:22 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
50_Tiger
That's pretty sobering.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:22 am to ell_13
Are we talking about Cajunangelle? Totally concerned atm those areas are gonna be fubar if not already.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:22 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
All the hype is is what the media regurgitates from the NHC.
So blame the NHC.
When Florence reached maximum intensity, 140 mph, and was projected to go right through Wilmington, this is what the NHC said in their discussion:
quote:
Key Messages:
1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.
4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.
Notice the priority/order of the key messages. The fact that the media loves a good wind gust doesn't mean the NHC overhyped a thing.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:23 am to LSUJuice
quote:All of this.
Duration makes all the difference. Gustav rolled in and out of BR in less than 12 hours, the bad wind lasted 6-8 hours, and gusts were barely hurricane force IIRC. Result was power outages for 2 weeks... now the decently populated NC coast is seeing well over hurricane force gusts for 24 hours.
And then of course there's a year's worth of rain in 3 days. And storm surge and battering waves for 2+ days.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:25 am to ell_13
Was she the poster talking about a new barn they were finishing up on their property this week? Man I hope she is ok.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:25 am to 50_Tiger
quote:Yep.
Are we talking about Cajunangelle?
Back on 9/11 she was in here telling everyone she was prepped and ready and that she didn't need to leave because the track wasn't certain. All she seemed to care about were the wild horses. People told her to get offline and go get ready to leave and she had a nice big melt. No posts since.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:25 am to ell_13
MOre bad news:
Shes stalled
Shes stalled
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:25 am to slackster
quote:
doesn't mean the NHC overhyped a thing.
I don’t think nor did I say anything was overhyped.
You’re misunderstanding what I’m saying.
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:25 am to Tiger Ryno
quote:That too. Claimed she had called the insurance company who said she should keep building it.
Was she the poster talking about a new barn they were finishing up on their property this week?
Posted on 9/14/18 at 9:27 am to ell_13
She’s always so over dramatic
I could see her having an epic melt
I could see her having an epic melt
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