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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:03 pm to
Posted by Teton Tiger
Somewhere between here and there.
Member since Mar 2005
3036 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

So the eye has now collapsed?
its not a hurricane how can it have an eye?
Posted by CorkSoaker
Member since Oct 2008
9823 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:04 pm to
Most MS coast schools doing 60% days as well.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21476 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:05 pm to
18z early cycle tracks, tightly clustered towards Mississippi

Posted by jdd48
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2012
23715 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:10 pm to
LP opened Tuesday as of now:

"Livingston Parish Public Schools is monitoring Tropical Storm Gordon along with emergency management officials. At this time, all schools and offices will operate normally on Tuesday, Sept. 4, 2018. Any official decisions regarding Wednesday closures will be posted on our website, www.lpsb.org, and communicated via School Messenger."
Posted by Fishwater
Carcosa
Member since Aug 2010
6050 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:18 pm to
Fairhope High School in Baldwin County, Alabama is letting classes out at 11:30 tomorrow. Going until 11:30 counts as a full day is why they are going.
Posted by TigerStripes06
SWLA
Member since Sep 2006
30032 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:20 pm to
I haven’t seen a ton of updated imaging, is this one of those storms where everything is east of the center?
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131427 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:22 pm to
Even without this storm the daily rain is getting miserable in South LA.
Posted by TigerStripes06
SWLA
Member since Sep 2006
30032 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:29 pm to
It’s been pouring here for 2 days. If I lived in a flood prone area, I’d be getting concerned. Galveston is flooding as we speak.
Posted by Mr. Misanthrope
Cloud 8
Member since Nov 2012
6421 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

I don't remember the last time, if ever, that I saw a storm form an inner core and clear it out so quickly. Compact storms like this can RI more easily it seems and I think this may be happening. Would be shocked now if it doesn't make it to hurricane strength, even if intensity fluctuates before landfall.


quote:

As I recall, a good many hurricanes which experienced dramatic strengthening, rapid pressure drops and commensurate wind increases share in common one or more ULL cold pools subsiding and providing dramatic potential energy for tropical cyclones in their vicinity. Camille being the textbook example. My memory tells me that her extreme pressure drop coincided with the cold air subsidence and she even followed the event's shear line into the Mississippi coast.

I raised this as a question earlier whether or not this was a possible scenario for this system.

Your observation of a small diameter central core clearing rapidly does suggest RI. Have any experts on the board provided updates or links on this possibility?

Is this becoming a situation where the the question is not will Gordon reach minimal hurricane status, but rather what category will he be at landfall?

I'm starting to be concerned a little that we may see a minimal category 2 Tuesday evening.

Any updates on the intensity modeling?
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131427 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:38 pm to
Yall sound like weatherunderground chicken littles
This post was edited on 9/3/18 at 3:38 pm
Posted by theOG
Member since Feb 2010
10830 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:42 pm to
The WU guys stopped blowing Gordon earlier when the eye dissipated. They just went from six to midnight now when they saw Florence is a 70mph storm already.
Posted by t00f
Not where you think I am
Member since Jul 2016
102068 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:43 pm to
CorkSoaker

Stay safe Cork.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:43 pm to
NHC puts Gordon at hurricane with a Biloxish landfall at 4 pm advisory.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21476 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:44 pm to
Hurricane Warning hoisted:

quote:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border. This warning replaces the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for this area.
Posted by The Cool No 9
70816
Member since Jan 2014
11135 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:45 pm to
Am I missing it? Why is it a “hurricane warning” when it’s not a hurricane it’s a T.S.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:46 pm to
Because it's projected to be a hurricane by the time it hits land now.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:46 pm to
They are forecasting it to be a hurricane at landfall; therefore, they post the warnings for the anticipated strength.
Posted by The Cool No 9
70816
Member since Jan 2014
11135 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:48 pm to
Thank y’all for taking me to school. Makes sense.
Posted by Fishwater
Carcosa
Member since Aug 2010
6050 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

They are forecasting it to be a hurricane at landfall; therefore, they post the warnings for the anticipated strength.


Looks like a Pass Christian landfall per the current prediction.
Posted by CorkSoaker
Member since Oct 2008
9823 posts
Posted on 9/3/18 at 3:56 pm to
Thanks. Just got back from target getting hurricane essentials.

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