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Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:18 am to GetCocky11
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:18 am to GetCocky11
quote:
At what point do we start ignoring the Euro?
You don't. It's the model with the best computing power behind it.
It does have a bit of a bias in overdoing the ridge though. Much like the GFS underdoes the ridge and backs it away too fast.
Split the differences and you get a path like the NHC has it.
0
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:22 am to ShamelessPel
Florence looks a bit messy this morning having lost a good bit of its pressure.
Is this just an EWRC or significant weakening for some reason? The Southwest quadrant looks to have lost a lot of its convection
Is this just an EWRC or significant weakening for some reason? The Southwest quadrant looks to have lost a lot of its convection
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:22 am to DawgCountry
quote:
Damn Euro has that thing going all the way to Atlanta
And straight through Cola.
Anal Pucker Factor [INCREASED] decreased
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:24 am to deltaland
EWRC.
NHC disco has the double band clear on microwave. I'd guess it'll take the morning to work through and get the eye clearing out nice again. So probably another strengthening phase tonight with the best conditions she's gonna get.
NHC disco has the double band clear on microwave. I'd guess it'll take the morning to work through and get the eye clearing out nice again. So probably another strengthening phase tonight with the best conditions she's gonna get.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:24 am to deltaland
quote:
EWRC
Yes and she's almost done. TS Force wind field is roughly 225 mi wide. She will grow today.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:24 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:
Damn CMC and GFS both eventually put Isaac in the GOM
Damn as a Cat 3 too
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:24 am to deltaland
quote:
Is this just an EWRC or significant weakening for some reason? The Southwest quadrant looks to have lost a lot of its convection
quote:
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens on 9/11/18 at 6:53 am to jlc05
Newest advisory (8am EDT) has winds down to 130 mph and pressure up to 950mb as the eyewall replacement cycle takes place.
Hopefully the public doesn’t interpret it as meaning that Florence is weakening.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:24 am to Duke
Here you go Duke. Last valid one I could find.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:26 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
50_Tiger
Did you see the EWRC vs dry air nerd fight last night? 2k got into it some, but Master's blog was a shitshow. That and Cat6 apparently just learned what "annular" is.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:28 am to CaptainJ47
quote:
Where can we get an updated projected rainfall total? I know initially it was up to like 40+ inches inland in the mountains but the recent shifts seem to take that down I would think.
00z Euro is back with the monster totals throughout NC. This is through 9/18 @ 7AM.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:29 am to Duke
quote:
Did you see the EWRC vs dry air nerd fight last night? 2k got into it some, but Master's blog was a shitshow. That and Cat6 apparently just learned what "annular" is
YES!
Those guys are "passionate" over there
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:31 am to CaptainJ47
quote:
This rainfall is beyond drastically different. At one point it was further west into the mountains. Now it seems like the west part is much more of a non event rain wise... aka 1-6 inches vs the 15+. This has to be a positive impact for reduced flooding chances.
Locally higher totals are very likely, just FYI.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:32 am to slackster
Wow 4 feet of rain over the next week in coastal NC. Not including flooding potential of storm surge. 
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:35 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Found a great GIF of the EWRC micro on 2k.
She gon be a yuugggee bihhh
She gon be a yuugggee bihhh
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:36 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Is it just me or does this storm seem like it's moving very slow?
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:36 am to 314stunna
quote:
Is it just me or does this storm seem like it's moving very slow?
Its forward speed will continue to slow down. That's the second biggest issue pre-landfall.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:37 am to deltaland
quote:
Damn CMC and GFS both eventually put Isaac in the GOM
Damn as a Cat 3 too
Did I miss something, or did the GFS kill Isaac off into South America?
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:37 am to 50_Tiger
2nd punch through eyewall still finding 950mb
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:38 am to Centinel
APF Level Midnight for Columbia.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:38 am to 50_Tiger
Holding steady at Cat 3
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