re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

seriously... WTF is you doin', bro

quote:

---

“Just get out! Just leave!” is a horrible plan 98% of the time for 98% of people (there are exceptions). No it’s worse than a horrible plan because it’s not even a fricking plan. It just creates more chaos and panic.

---

This is so misguided. Is it a PITA to pack up the family and get out of town? Absolutely. Is it reckless to "ride it out" and put yourself, family, and people who may potentially have to come rescue you at risk? Absolutely.

As someone already said, TS, CAT 1, or even CAT 2 maybe. However, if you're talking about a strong 3 to potentially 5 then you are too dumb to help if you're in the path and choose to stay.

Making a shear angel obviously

I’m not talking about people in the path.

Holy shite... according to the latest 18Z run on the GFS, Florence approaches North Caroline as a Cat 4, just teasing the shoreline, then, YIPPEE, heads back west!!

Except, Florence says, to everyone, she just went out a little farther to get up to a Killer 903Mb Cat 5 status, then turns around, and with no lube, just totally fricks North Carolina for a half day, and then decides, "I'm tired. Think I'll go down to a Cat 4 for about the next 12 hours and just sit here." And so she sits, and sits and sits, and then eventually, over the next six hours starts giving out, first as a Cat 3 for about three hours, then a Cat 2 for about 8-9 hours, then drops to a Cat 1 for another 5-6 hours before finally turning into a tropical storm.

All of it in practically one place. North Carolina is going to look like the Finger of God came down and stirred up the entire place. frick.

wait... so now Isaac is going to bomb out into a major hurricane?

fortunately by then that gif has it safely away from anyone... only making the fish wetter

So basically the GFS and Euro have diverged even further?

This board repeatedly makes the point that even if your life isn't going to be truly in danger, which it may well not be for a large number of people in the warned area here, it may still suck for days or weeks because of power outages, lack of services, lack of businesses open, transportation difficulties, fuel shortages, etc.

I really wish that message ("sure, you probably won't die and your house may survive well enough, but you'll hate life for weeks!") could be effectively relayed to more people. NHC tries to do it, but I'm not sure it hits home.

Euro ensembles showing a couple out to sea solutions as well as a couple GA solutions, but the operational run and the mean still target the SC/NC border.