re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Florence trying to get the convection wrapped around her center.

Poor Wilmington

I think the Euro run I saw earlier showed a high park right over Isaac. Looked similar to what I saw in GFS yesterday or day before yesterday.

GFS showing something similar on this run to Isaac for those interested. Looks like the ridge near florence keeps pushing it westward but it has it running into vertical shear that basically just rips it to pieces by the time it approaches central america. All depends on how that ridge is impacted near florence and also how strong isaac gets by the time it hits those interactions. Models been consistent showing that the past day or so hopefully it holds up as true.

The system may certainly stall on the coast, we see that time and time again, but there is almost 0% chance this thing will hover along the coast at major hurricane strength for any real length of time.
Land will break this thing apart

Put down some incredible rains too. Like 90"+ over the water. Looks like you found it slack.

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The system may certainly stall on the coast, we see that time and time again, but there is almost 0% chance this thing will hover along the coast at major hurricane strength for any real length of time.
Land will break this thing apart

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Of all the runs in the last 24 hours, this one is probably the least impactful on land so far. Florence doesn't ever get within 100 or so miles of the coast (not counting the Outer Banks). It's plausible it could maintain strength over that time frame.

Also, a lack of steering usually means a lack of sheer.

Mangkhut gathering up into a typhoon this evening, Guam under Typhoon Wanting. GFS has been bombing this guy down to sub 900 for five runs now. WPac monster written all over this one.

Florence is looking a bit healthier tonight. Mixing out the dry air rds mentioned slowly but surely.



Finally, Levi's Saturday Night 9/8 Update

I’d go to Atlanta for a couple weeks