re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

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The tv meteorologists in Houston are flirting with the idea of the thunderstorms down off the coast of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica could gather some momentum and churn up a tropical system for Texas. talking mid next week?

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It's possible, if it storms long enough over the water it'll eventually close off into a low pressure system. A few models have shown a broad low pressure area show up in the gulf in the timeframe. Not a significant numbers of models develop it and it wouldn't likely be anything major but bring more rain to the area.

WTF is that loop?

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Over/under on number of "climate change caused this" articles that would come out in the following days if we get back-to-back hits on consecutive days on US Soil: 14,000

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Many probably as that's the consensus party line.

I just read an analysis that claimed climate change/global warming (take your pick) is responsible for a higher percentage of extreme hurricanes over the past few years.

I realize that the technology available to provide enhanced satellite imagery, aerial incursions, buoy data and all the rest confirms when a storm reaches the extreme category. The assumption seems to be there are more extreme storms now which coincides with current popular theories respecting global warming. So there must be a direct correlation.

How do they know over that past ages that there weren't just as many extreme hurricanes, or more?

There's dramatic jump in the tools available to the tropical meteorologist in the time between Miller and Dunn's Atlantic Hurricanes (1964 I think) and Simpson and Riehl's The Hurricane and Its Impact (1981), and light years between 1981 and now. The satellite and Doppler radar imagery available now compared to limited radar snapshot images of the late 1940s and 1950s are what the crossbow is to a Predator drone.

Prior to the competent and innovative military meteorologists in the early to mid 20th century, particularly in the WWII Pacific, the most accomplished hurricane forecasters operated in the late 1800s, early 1900s, Issac Kline and Benito Vines, a Cuban priest, both self taught.

The 1900 Galveston hurricane that Kline experienced and suffered great personal tragedy has been deemed a Category 4. Was it? A 5? A 3? Based on damage to wooden structures and anemometers that failed? Estimated storm surge? No satellite imagery or flights from Kessler to confirm. I'm not saying it wasn't a 4. I'd guess it probably was.

We really just don't know for sure whether the many hurricanes which have hit the U.S. coast from its founding and even before have been more or less extreme than those we have experienced in the last 60 years or so.

To assume that the last few decades represent all the previous seems dubious and reflects an agenda looking for "scientific" justification.
IMHO.

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WTF is that loop?

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these storms always throw us for a loop. I have dyslexia so I took that as the storm went for a loop

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WTF is that loop?


these storms always throw us for a loop. I have dyslexia so I took that as the storm went for a loop

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Solid explanation

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Florence looks raggedy as shite

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Just got back from DC, glad I got the frick out of there.

You missed Punta Cana.

Looks like the GFS takes TD9 north out of the Caribbean in fantasy land time obviously plenty of time to track that one.

Update from Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits - LINK

18z HWRF goes gang busters with Florence