re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

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A good note about Florence is this thing is going to be booking it which will lessen impacts some.

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Eh, current rainfall projections on the 12z Euro from Thursday at 7PM to Saturday at 7PM are 15-20" over wide parts of SC, NC, and Virginia.

Still a ways out for those totals obviously, but the rainfall impact could still be very severe.

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Isaac wants round 2 with Louisiana. The last Isaac in 2012 was a pussy.

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I moved back home to NOLA, earlier in 2012. I spent several weeks ripping carpet and sheetrock out of homes in LaPlace for several friends that lived there. I'll pass on a second round.

This one kept screwing up on me.

Looks like dry air and upper trough over Texas. Push system to fla panhandle ?

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...

724
WTNT42 KNHC 072044
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system over the
eastern tropical Atlantic has developed a well-defined center and
sufficient deep convection to be classified a tropical depression,
the ninth one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season and second one
of the day. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a 2.0
Dvorak classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data.

The depression has not moved much today, and it has even wobbled a
bit to the east recently. This slow motion is a result of very
weak steering with broad troughing to the north and Tropical
Depression Eight to its east. Little motion is expected through
tonight, but a westward motion with a gradual increase in forward
speed is forecast thereafter as a subtropical ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies closest to the
HCCA guidance and takes the system toward the Lesser Antilles by the
end of the forecast period.

The depression is experiencing some influences of easterly shear,
which is why the center is currently on the eastern edge of the
convection. Little change in intensity is expected during the next
12 to 24 hours since the cyclone is still in the developing stage
and because moderate shear is expected to continue. However, the
shear is expected to decrease to less than 10 kt in about 24 hours.
These more favorable winds aloft combined with relatively warm
waters and a fairly moist airmass should allow for steady
strengthening beginning later in the weekend. There is a large
spread in the intensity guidance, with the HWRF showing the system
becoming a major hurricane and HMON showing almost no strengthening.
The NHC intensity forecast lies a little below consensus models
since it appears that it will take some time for the system to
strengthen.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.6N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.9N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 14.0N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 14.0N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 14.0N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 14.0N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 14.1N 48.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 14.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$

QQ: The tv meteorologists in Houston are flirting with the idea of the thunderstorms down off the coast of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica could gather some momentum and churn up a tropical system for Texas. talking mid next week?

you can see the storms they are referring to on this loop:

First cone for TD9.

Busy times ahead, that is for sure.

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HMON showing almost no strengthening.

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No doomcane from the HMON?

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classic misdirection

doomcane incoming

OP updated with NHC tracks for TD8 & TD9