re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

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Centered on Cape Canaveral

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The cloud pattern has become better organized with a hint of an eye
on high resolution satellite imagery and plenty of convective bands.
In addition, earlier data from a reconnaissance plane and surface
observations from St. Thomas as Dorian moved by yield an initial
intensity of 70 kt. Now that the hurricane has developed an inner
core with a 15 to 20 n mi eye, strengthening is more likely. Given
the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in
the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked
intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72
hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall. This
forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, the HCCA model,
and the SHIPS guidance.

Satellite and earlier reconnaissance plane fixes indicate that
Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 12
kt. The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic
subtropical ridge, and this northwest motion should continue for the
next 24 to 48 hours. However, after that time, all the global models
continue to build a strong ridge over the western Atlantic, and this
flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest
toward Florida. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend,
a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula. The
new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous
one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and
the track models show more of a westward motion. Users are reminded
not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track
error is around 200 miles.

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Panhandle can't take another direct hit. This place still looks like Aleppo from Michael last year

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Rapid Intensification

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