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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:21 pm to
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

this storm is apparently pretty hard to predict.



arent they all?
Posted by GeauxTigers80
Birmingham
Member since Aug 2009
909 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:23 pm to
Are we still so sure this isn’t a gulf threat. It’s beginning to look like it’s possible.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:24 pm to
That's why I was asking Duke about the ridge earlier because it seemed exaggerated in some models. This is what's worrying to me that it gets trapped under that ridge and drifts further westward.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
127763 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

Are we still so sure this isn’t a gulf threat.


We very much aren't sure. It appears to be a Gulf threat at this point, and a major one.
Posted by jcaz
Laffy
Member since Aug 2014
18751 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:25 pm to
After all the drama and stress with Barry I’m going to wait until Saturday night after the game and then start following this thing.
But.... the Euro was pretty spot on with Barry about 5 days out so it’s worth getting concerned
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91302 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

I don't see why anyone would really pay specific attention to the models past 3 or 4 days outside of "it might be in the general area, so keep an eye out".


While I completely agree, people would lose their shite if you waited to tell them about a hurricane heading their way until it was 72 hours out.
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
11443 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:41 pm to
quote:

For whatever it's worth, a friend works in the maritime industry and he told me that their private weather service is thinking that Dorian will curl North in East Florida and move up the East coast, Georgia, SC, NC. This was as about 8 this morning.


You need to tell your company to save money and stop feeding the professionally paid weather guessers. They need to read this board instead, and it is free. It even comes with a Money Back Guarantee.
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
58559 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:41 pm to
The grocery stores are packed out here in Ponte vedra beach it’s gonna be a shitshow all the way thru Labor Day
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1934 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:42 pm to


12z Euro Ensembles - notable intensity uptick for Gulf tracks. And of course, further west

Contrast it with the 0z Euro ensemble:

This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 2:43 pm
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18011 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:45 pm to
quote:

They need to read this board instead, and it is free.

My TD Premium fee gets me super duper special accurate models and no Oweo or peej.
Posted by BoogaBear
Member since Jul 2013
6970 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:47 pm to
Looks like I'll be watching it rain at the lake, south of Birmingham, Sept 5th- 8th.
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
11443 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

We’ll know more in 24-48 hours


The go to phrase for doctors, meteorologists, stock brokers, and politicians.

Meanwhile while you wait, they are headed out of town.
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
85851 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:50 pm to
Damn I didn't see the NHC saying that there was a sustained 82mph wind and gust of 111 on Buck Island (the St. Thomas one, not the St. Croix one).
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:53 pm to
The ensembles earlier were tightly clustered in their confidence. This one is tightly around florida but it still leaves the possibility on board the ridge could push it further west into somewhere like Louisiana. Fairly large difference in intensity probably because it wasn't projecting that well earlier.

Both the Euro/GFS are showing some potential stalling on land. If it gets trapped under that ridge it's pucker arse time on it potentially ramping up on intensity.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 2:57 pm
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53464 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:53 pm to
They'll be out of Coronas in Daytona
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:55 pm to
This looks much different than the 11am model

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
100277 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:57 pm to
quote:

Well shite. I am supposed to go to Destin this weekend.



It would be late next week before it made landfall there
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
127763 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:59 pm to
Praying this thing takes the upper part of that cone
Posted by The Pirate King
Pangu
Member since May 2014
65021 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:59 pm to
I wouldn’t mind some light rain in BR next weekend to water the grass and plants. Plus the game is in Austin.
Posted by soccerfüt
Location: A Series of Tubes
Member since May 2013
72722 posts
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:59 pm to
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