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Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:22 am to rds dc
quote:
depends on how fast and strong the ridge builds in over the top.
This is really the only question that matters for steering once north of the islands.
Of course, there's a bunch of questions to ask on what things impact the eventual shape and strength. Never simple.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:25 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
That doesn’t seem too bad. I wanted to make sure I wasn’t going to get stuck somewhere on the way back.
I'm sure some way out of Key West to Alabama will be open, but the current trend seems to suggest a storm through FL is a good possibility at this point.
You'll have a decent idea before you leave tomorrow.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:28 am to slackster
Better look at 6z Euro Ensembles
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:30 am to lsugolfredman
when will we have the 12z runs? from what I understand that was at 6am cst? 6z is midnight cst? If the chart I am looking at is correct, but idk how it works in regards to them having to run it and process the information.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 9:32 am
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:31 am to Duke
What I find interesting is the GFS ensembles seem more in agreement with Euro but the GFS model image/ gif has it running towards Fl/ Ga. That model seems to be the outlier compared to everything else I've seen. Yet NHC seems to be splitting the difference between everyone else and the GFS model image.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:36 am to hubertcumberdale
quote:
when will we have the 12z runs? from what I understand that was at 6am cst? 6z is midnight cst? If the chart I am looking at is correct, but idk how it works in regards to them having to run it and process the information.
They come out at different times. For the 12z, the GFS runs about 11 cdt. The Euro is about 1 pm cdt. The others run in between.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:36 am to hubertcumberdale
quote:
6z is midnight cst
But we're in daylight time. 6z is 1am CDT.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:39 am to Zephyrius
quote:
That model seems to be the outlier compared to everything else I've seen. Yet NHC seems to be splitting the difference between everyone else and the GFS model image.
I'm pretty sure the GFS ensambles are still running off the old GFS, so don't be too surprised they differ. The NHC is having to hedge because how our western Atlantic ridge sets up has a lot of questions still.
I typically choose to ride the Euro in uncertain times until the GFS and Euro really converge on a solution.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:40 am to Zephyrius
quote:
What I find interesting is the GFS ensembles seem more in agreement with Euro but the GFS model image/ gif has it running towards Fl/ Ga.
The GFS ensembles are based on the GFS legacy, not the current GFS.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:41 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:That sounds important. I wish I knew what it means....
The GFS ensembles are based on the GFS legacy, not the current GFS.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:43 am to lsugolfredman
Just when I thought models were beginning the process of ruling out the Gulf.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:45 am to LSURussian
quote:
That sounds important. I wish I knew what it means....
The GFS was recently upgraded, but they still run the previous version, GFS legacy. The ensembles haven't been moved to the new GFS yet, so when people see the GFS ensembles, they are seeing ensembles based off the old GFS, which is why we are the ensembles so different from the operational.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:47 am to GEAUXmedic
So it's like using Windows 8.1 instead of Windows 10, right?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:48 am to TDsngumbo
Any landfall south of Lake Okeachobee would have me really nervous just like those red lines are showing.
That eventual curve north puts us in the vicinity and gives it time to reorganize in the Gulf
That eventual curve north puts us in the vicinity and gives it time to reorganize in the Gulf
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:49 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Just when I thought models were beginning the process of ruling out the Gulf
I’m headed to Orange Beach tomorrow night and coming back on Tuesday morning. This has me a little concerned. I know it’s tough to say, but if it does cross into gulf, what’s the timeline for a northern gulf coast landfall? Just wondering if leaving OB early Tuesday headed west will be ok?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:50 am to LSURussian
quote:
So it's like using Windows 8.1 instead of Windows 10, right?
More like windows 7 to windows 10, but yeah.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:50 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Just when I thought models were beginning the process of ruling out the Gulf.
ICON says, "What took y'all so long?"
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:50 am to GEAUXmedic
Oof
The hurricane advisory is all kinds of off given those models
The hurricane advisory is all kinds of off given those models
Posted on 8/28/19 at 9:54 am to LSURussian
quote:
That sounds important. I wish I knew what it means....
The current GFS operational model is new, with a more sophisticated physics model. The ensambles, which try and tweek intitial conditions to generate a spread of possible outcomes typically run off the same physical model as the operational model but at a lower resolution.
The GFS ensambles however, are still using the old GFS. Just means they aren't showing the same spread they would using the new model. So they don't represent the spread the new GFS engine would depict.
The other ensamble set typically posted is the European model, which is also recently upgraded but has the ensambles also running off the update. So they are a better representation of the spread of possible outcomes that model is putting out.
In the short term (2-3 days), the operational models are going to be best. When you get past that and more uncertainty is cooked in, the ensambles are useful because you're really just looking for the range of possible outcomes.
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