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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

Posted on 8/31/19 at 1:07 am to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 1:07 am to
I clearly missed a lot in the two hours I watched John Wick 3 tonight.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131381 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 1:12 am to
He is a drunk troll

Bless his little heart
Posted by iliveinabox
in a box
Member since Aug 2011
24145 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 1:13 am to
Ol boy is jealous imo
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 1:21 am to
00z Euro



00z GFS



A northward turn in/near Florida is a tough prediction. If you're off by 100 miles you could miss the whole state and hit SC. If you miss Morgan City by 100 miles 3 days out, no one notices.
This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 1:26 am
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 1:27 am to


Makes a little through of his own between the ridges.

The first through comes in a little deeper (588 line dips down into SC). Takes the oppertunity. Then gets squeezed in by the western ridge and eastern ridges building.

Looks a whole lot like the GFS solution out to 120 hours.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 1:30 am to
To give you an idea of how much a subtle change in the turn has impacted Florida, here is the 00z guidance from 24 hours ago - THIS IS NO LONGER VALID FOR NOW:





Very similar agreement, but 75 miles to the east makes a significant difference in Florida impacts.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 1:45 am to
quote:

Makes a little through of his own between the ridges.

The first through comes in a little deeper (588 line dips down into SC). Takes the oppertunity. Then gets squeezed in by the western ridge and eastern ridges building.

Looks a whole lot like the GFS solution out to 120 hours.


I know hurricanes are steered st all heights, so I wonder how much the lower currents matter. This is the MSLP anomalies.

Ridge steering it west for 48 hours...



Trough digging out a path north at 72 hours...



And more pronounced at 94 hours...



As rds mentioned, if you feel the need to shite on the NHC, remember that the weather event that is currently allowing Dorian to potentially escape out to sea is still a few hundred miles west of Oregon and still 3+ days away. That's pretty damn impressive imo.
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
134530 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 1:58 am to
Hopefully it will get pushed out. It looks awful
Posted by liz18lsu
Member since Feb 2009
18038 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 2:24 am to
English, slackster, do you speak it?!

Please put, in to layman's terms, where this storm is headed in the next 24-48 hours.
Posted by Chatagnier
Member since Sep 2008
6851 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:23 am to
Looks like the eye wall got alot thicker and way more symmetrical in the last few frames of the GOES imagery.
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43290 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:28 am to
Another HH Aircraft has taken off to fly into Dorian.
Posted by FLObserver
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
16069 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:32 am to
keep going east hurricane away from any state .come on Gulf stream pull this thing out to sea.
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59237 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 4:44 am to
See you tonight for the game but this hurricane is stressing me out man.
Posted by LSU Fan SLU Grad
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2006
4893 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:26 am to


Mean looking storm. Eye is impressive.

This post was edited on 8/31/19 at 5:29 am
Posted by prplhze2000
Parts Unknown
Member since Jan 2007
58105 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:38 am to
Can someone seance w Coolidge?
Posted by DawgCountry
Great State of GA
Member since Sep 2012
33233 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:40 am to


5am advisory
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:46 am to
Welp Georgia/South Carolina you’re up
Posted by PhillyTiger90
Not Phillytiger9
Member since Dec 2015
11828 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:49 am to
Hilton Head
Posted by MrBige
Jacksonville FL
Member since Jan 2011
203 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 5:59 am to
This feels like a repeat of Hurricane floyd in 1999. Apparently Florida’s east coast has a natural defense, a jet stream of some sort thats parallel to Fl that helps steer hurricanes north of us.
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
39090 posts
Posted on 8/31/19 at 6:04 am to
Are you thinking of the Gulf Stream?
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