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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:58 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21466 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

GFS 18z dropping the pressure into the 40's just before it makes landfall at West Palm Beach


Also, a bit of a south jog after correcting north the last few runs.
Posted by ScaryClown
Member since Nov 2016
5847 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:59 pm to
Where did they find this Rick Nab guy. His knowledge of weather is suspect.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177195 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:01 pm to
This storm is woke.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:01 pm to
quote:

Where did they find this Rick Nab guy. His knowledge of weather is suspect.



Rick Knabb is actually very intelligent, he's the former NHC director, has a Ph.D. in meteorology from Florida State University, and worked for the NHC from 2001-2010, in addition to his stint as NHC director from 2012-2017.
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 5:02 pm
Posted by nuwaydawg
Member since Nov 2007
2252 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:02 pm to
quote:

it is indeed sad. We just have to hope for the best.


Hunker down Road Gator. I went through Hugo with a friend. The wind howling (actually kinda cool) was nothing compared to being without electricity for days.
Posted by AubieALUMdvm
Member since Oct 2011
11713 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:04 pm to
quote:

The Boat



Don’t think I’ll ever understand people who are trolling a hurricane thread.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177195 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:04 pm to
John Hope and Steve Lyons drag their nuts all over Rick Knabb.
Posted by al_cajun
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2017
2442 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:04 pm to
quote:

Also, a bit of a south jog after correcting north the last few runs.


So are you thinking it will hit further south than NOAA is showing?
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:05 pm to
quote:


Where did they find this Rick Nab guy. His knowledge of weather is suspect.


Dude reminds me of Beto with all his hand movements and whatnot.

I’m not a fan of Rick Nab. He’s a loose cannon
Posted by Zephyrius
Wharton, La.
Member since Dec 2004
9565 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:05 pm to
quote:

This storm is woke.

I was up against the gun on a travel decision... I made it based on the 12z Euro... if the GFS 18z plays I'm going to be in it a bit rougher than I would like.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177195 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

I’m not a fan of Rick Nab. He’s a loose cannon


He's perfect character for the social media global warming generation.

John Hope and Steve Lyons were all business.
Posted by LSUwag
Florida man
Member since Jan 2007
18107 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:06 pm to
I’m headed to St Aug Beach tonight to secure my house. I’m on the first block on the west side of A1A. I’m nervous for this one.

Our beach was just starting to grow the dunes back. They were about 8” high and were leveled by the last two hits. They’re about 3” tall right now. That’s a lot of protection gone.
Posted by Delacroix22
Member since Aug 2013
4537 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:08 pm to
watching that eye wall organize into a perfect circle on the last satellite animation is incredible
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:09 pm to
quote:

Who decides which models get included into these various things?


The NHC will lean toward one or the other (Euro or GFS typically) if they're handlijf a storm well over its life. They typically use super ensembles that take all of the global models into account. Historically, the NHC track error has been better than any individual model over time. They're very good at this.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177195 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:09 pm to
quote:

watching that eye wall organize into a perfect circle on the last satellite animation is incredible


Rapid intensification is incredible to watch on satellite imagery.
Posted by jlnoles79
Member since Jan 2014
14464 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:10 pm to
quote:

John Hope and Steve Lyons drag their nuts all over Rick Knabb.



Loved John and Psycho
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
46758 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:11 pm to
quote:

There's some lightning in the eyewall over the past hour, another sign of strengthening. Which some of those sonde readings have been confirming


My daughter just sent me a cool lightning thing. something about Dorian light show. I will see if I can get it to my computer, then post it.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21466 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:12 pm to
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:13 pm to
quote:



Rick Knabb is actually very intelligent, he's the former NHC director, has a Ph.D. in meteorology from Florida State University, and worked for the NHC from 2001-2010, in addition to his stint as NHC director from 2012-2017.



He doesn’t have shite on David Bernard

Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61722 posts
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:13 pm to
quote:

slackster


Thanks.
I guess it just seems strange that on the spaghetti models there are always some that look like they are on crack such as the one I mentioned or the groups that can have 99.9% pointing towards a South Carolina landfall and there is always that one that still runs over to New Orleans.
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