re: How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs

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Great. The gov’t takes more of our money and yet still spends us into oblivion. Glad your guy won.

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I don't necessarily like it but I'm able to see why it's being done:

1) To bring more jobs back to the US
2) To get us more benenficial trade agreements with other countries

Your woman and the rest of her ilk also wanted to take more of our money, but the reason for that was simply to spend it on social programs and make sure we "pay our fair share". Something that they will never define and which pretty much does the opposite of grow the economy and create jobs. I will settle for "our guy".

Long term tariffs will develop the domestic economy, increase production that strengthens national security, and create good paying jobs for Americans.

Not sure why economists are for spending American tax dollars to develop the economies of rural and other underdeveloped parts of the country but against using tariffs paid in large part by foreigners to do the same thing.

The same dumbasses for economic opportunity zones, affordable housing programs, government led rural development programs, etc, all paid for by John Doe Taxpayer, want China to be able to dump products here tariff/tax free in the name of “free trade”.

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Not sure why economists are for spending American tax dollars to develop the economies of rural and other underdeveloped parts of the country but against using tariffs paid in large part by foreigners to do the same thing.

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Bank of America estimates that consumers are paying 50%-70% of tariff costs so far, with companies covering the rest. 

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Bank of America estimates that consumers are paying 50%-70% of tariff costs so far, with companies covering the rest

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I call BS. Inflation for consumers has only been 3%. Lowest tariffs have been 10%. Some, like against China, are +50%. That shows, without any “expert” to tell us what to think, consumers aren’t paying the bulk of the tariffs.

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I see people use coupons to save $3 sometimes

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This doesn't prevent an experience.

Skipping a night out does.

People are only motivated to save when it doesn't cost them something they can't live without.

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I call BS. Inflation for consumers has only been 3%. Lowest tariffs have been 10%. Some, like against China, are +50%. That shows, without any “expert” to tell us what to think, consumers aren’t paying the bulk of the tariffs.

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Revenue from duties has increased by about $22 billion per month since early 2025. Total US consumer spending is about $1.76 trillion per month. So using rough math with no “expert opinion” needed: if 100% of the tariffs were ultimately absorbed by consumers, it would only amount to an increase of about 1.25%.

That 1.25% estimate ignores:
- Tariffs paid as part of the supply chain for goods/services that are ultimately exported.
- The time it takes tariffs to work through the supply chain down to the consumer level.

That last point is a big one. Let’s take the example of a new plastics plant being built. Tariffs on steel, electronics, etc. drive up the cost to build the plant. Then that new, more expensive plant comes online. They can still only sell their plastics at the market rate, though, so while they’d like to raise prices they’re instead stuck at a lower ROI than expected. Then over time, other plastics plants are upgraded/expanded. Eventually other new plants are built. Eventually everybody is feeling the impact of the added cost of construction, and the price of plastics creeps up over time.

But consumers don’t really buy bulk plastics (outside of stuff like 3D printing filament) so now the price increase has to work its way through another layer if the supply chain - the companies who are making stuff out of the bulk plastics from the chemical plant. Their prices have also been creeping up due to impacts on construction costs etc., but now they also have a raw material cost increase to deal with.

It can take a very long time before these price increases make their way down to the consumer. We are currently only like 6 months into the tariffs, and total duties paid are still increasing (that $22 billion increase in total duties was only about $15 billion in May, and about $20 billion in August).

When you put it all together, it seems a bit shortsighted to say “inflation is only 3%; experts are wrong about consumers paying the bulk of the tariffs.” You do, in fact, need a fair amount of expert analysis in order to determine how much is being passed along to consumers at this point.

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To what extent is the growth driven by data center projects and where would GDP be if you took away data center projects?

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GDP is mostly bullshite too.

2 economists go for a walk in the woods. They come across a pile of shite. Economist 1 tells Economist 2 he’ll pay $100 if he eats the shite. Econ 2 eats the shite and collects his $100.

30 minutes latter they come across another pile of shite. This time Econ 2 offers Econ 1 $100 to eat the shite. Econ 1 eats the shite and gets back the $100 he previously paid Econ 2.

They walk a little further. Econ 1 says, we’ve eaten 2 piles of shite and have nothing to show for it. Econ 2replies, but there is now an additional $200 in the economy. Econ 1 briefly ponders then says, “true, GDP has increased by $200. Glad we ate the shite.”

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Inflation is still 3%, but I’m happy to make a sacrifice for more manufacturing jobs

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Well that's not happening either.

US losing thousands of manufacturing jobs