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How FHA has prevented foreclosures. Video of one example of a mortgage not paid in 5 years
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:22 am
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:22 am
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Full 10 minute video with more information
My previous threads on this including the original article from the WSJ
A record 64.5% of new FHA borrowers have debt-to-income ratio above 43.0%
How FHA has propped up parts of the RE market since CV
But stout you have been predicting a crash for years. Yes, I have said several times over the past 5'ish years that a correction should have happened by now. I am in the industry and see the data from Corelogic, ATTOM, and others, and that data has long shown a correction was on the way or should have happened by now but the video clearly shows why one has not happened. The Gov is literally preventing it from happening using taxpayer money and creating a bubble in the process.
About 7% of FHA mortgages issued last year went seriously delinquent (90 or more days past when a payment is due) within 12 months and 17% of FHA loans from 2022 are in some stage of default but not foreclosure because the Gov is propping them up and not allowing a normal function of the RE market to happen. The VA has adopted the same practice. If you have a VA loan just stop paying it. They aren't going to foreclose on you. The CFPB wants to roll this out to conventional loans too and make it standard. If Liz Warren's agency gets its way there will soon be no reason ever to pay your mortgage.
Don't think FHA is large enough to prevent a correction? Think again as FHA insures about 25% of all mortgages. VA makes up around 6%
FHFA even posts stats monthly about how many foreclosures they prevented by abusing forbearance

Now Trump is putting pressure on the FED to lower rates. If that happens, and FHA continues what it is doing, we may never see an affordable market again and we really will be just a nation of renters or 65% and higher DTI just becomes the new standard.
This post was edited on 3/21/25 at 8:24 am
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:23 am to stout
quote:
HUD

ETA: say bruh, your edit messed up my racially charged response

This post was edited on 3/21/25 at 8:26 am
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:28 am to stout
Muh errybody has a right to homeownership!
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:29 am to stout
Dude didn't pay a dime for 5 years
This, ladies and gents, is one way how to get a housing bubble to burst. Govt interference in the worst way.

This, ladies and gents, is one way how to get a housing bubble to burst. Govt interference in the worst way.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:30 am to stout
quote:
and we really will be just a nation of renters
Read something yesterday that the mean age of current renters skyrocketed from low 30's (32/33) to 42!
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:30 am to stout
This is so frustrating. What's even more amazing is for all of the "we're cutting the bureaucracy" and "we're fighting fraud" from the admin, they ignore this actual fraud to focus on legally-allocated money they spin as "Fraud".
Has real estate overtaken Social Security/Medicare as our most protected third rail?
Has real estate overtaken Social Security/Medicare as our most protected third rail?
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:35 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Has real estate overtaken Social Security/Medicare as our most protected third rail?
I think it has. The amount of programs for residential and commercial RE would shock most people. From development tax credits to just straight-up subsidies there are billions in programs. Some are known but some are kept under close guard by those who benefit most from them. People would be shocked to know how tax credits work in the RE development world.
No one wants a 2008 on their watch and the Gov is so paranoid about that happening that they have gone to extremes and done what they do best and created a socialist bubble.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:37 am to idlewatcher
quote:
Read something yesterday that the mean age of current renters skyrocketed from low 30's (32/33) to 42!
You will own nothing and be happy
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:41 am to stout
quote:
But stout you have been predicting a crash for years.
Been there with you thinking this is going to happen. Now it makes sense why it hasn't. It's going to get nasty really quick in ways I don't fully comprehend if this flood gate is let open.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:42 am to stout
quote:
The amount of programs for residential and commercial RE would shock most people. From development tax credits to just straight-up subsidies there are billions in programs. Some are known but some are kept under close guard by those who benefit most from them. People would be shocked to know how tax credits work in the RE development world.

Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:45 am to stout
quote:
The amount of programs for residential and commercial RE would shock most people.
My favorite are the "under served community" programs. Small banks are being given incentives and safe guards to lend to people who would not otherwise be credit worthy. Sounds very much like the things that caused 2008.
CDFI programs
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:50 am to SlowFlowPro
Even that guy would love to get in on the free money/tax credits for RE development. I didn't want to type it all out so ChatGPT summed it up
After Rita I was involved in one of these projects with an attorney and RE developer from NOLA and one day I will tell you the full story. Another prominent contractor from LC was also involved and he backed out early on due to some concerns about the abuse of the tax credits.
quote:
States receive tax credits for low-income housing primarily through the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, which is a federal initiative administered by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) in partnership with state housing agencies. Here’s how it works:
1. Federal Allocation to States
Each year, the federal government allocates tax credits to states based on population.
The allocation is determined by a per capita formula, meaning larger states get more credits.
In 2024, the per capita allocation is $2.75 per resident, with a minimum small-state allocation of $3.35 million.
2. State Housing Agencies Distribute Credits
Each state has a housing finance agency (HFA) that oversees LIHTC allocations.
Developers apply for tax credits through these agencies by proposing affordable housing projects.
States evaluate projects based on a Qualified Allocation Plan (QAP), which sets priorities such as serving extremely low-income families, sustainability, or proximity to transit.
3. Developers Receive Tax Credits
If approved, developers receive 10-year tax credits that reduce their federal tax liability.
The credits can cover up to 70% of a project's construction costs for new developments (known as "9% credits") or 30% for rehabilitation projects (known as "4% credits").
Developers often sell these credits to investors to raise capital, reducing the need for loans and making rent more affordable.
4. Affordable Housing Must Be Maintained
Properties must remain affordable for at least 30 years.
Rent is capped at 30% of a tenant’s income, and tenants generally must earn 60% or less of the area median income (AMI).
Non-compliance can lead to credit recapture by the IRS.
5. State-Level Incentives & Credits
Some states supplement federal LIHTC with state tax credits to further incentivize affordable housing.
These may be refundable or non-refundable credits for investors and developers.
In short, states get federal LIHTC allocations, distribute them to developers who build affordable housing, and ensure compliance for long-term affordability. Let me know if you need details on a specific state's program!
After Rita I was involved in one of these projects with an attorney and RE developer from NOLA and one day I will tell you the full story. Another prominent contractor from LC was also involved and he backed out early on due to some concerns about the abuse of the tax credits.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:51 am to rmc
quote:
Sounds very much like the things that caused 2008.
Because it is but the difference is this time the Gov will simply make the bank whole to keep the program rolling.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:51 am to stout
In before the people that cried that the world was burning 4 months ago come out to argue that real estate is fine and Trump should lower rates
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:54 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
What's even more amazing is for all of the "we're cutting the bureaucracy" and "we're fighting fraud" from the admin, they ignore this actual fraud to focus on legally-allocated money they spin as "Fraud".
These are all Biden programs and you've concluded that the most frustrating part is Trump hasn't fixed it.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:55 am to NIH
quote:
and Trump should lower rates
It Trump gets his way with lower rates then RE is F'd forever.
Also, all of those AirBNBros with ARMs will not be forced to sell and the STR game/con will keep rolling
FYI, there is a big issue at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that is developing over the way AirBNBros have financed their STRs which is they just straight-up committed mortgage fraud
This post was edited on 3/21/25 at 8:56 am
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:56 am to Cosmo
quote:
Muh errybody has a right to homeownership!
Who was the president that said this, I have always attributed it to Clinton.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:57 am to stout
Sorry bro but this crash you’ve been praying for just ain’t gonna happen. Inventory still low, new construction costs are insane, no crash.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:57 am to moneyg
quote:
These are all Biden programs
To be fair they are not. They came about after 2008 but Biden expanded and abused them. Part of that is due to the CFPB also abusing their power and forcing lenders' hands.
Trump is doing the right thing by defunding the CFPB but we need Congress to kill it completely.
Posted on 3/21/25 at 8:58 am to moneyg
quote:
These are all Biden programs and you've concluded that the most frustrating part is Trump hasn't fixed it.
Trump hasn't addressed it, nor does anyone think he will.
Just like he won't touch other "third rail" subjects like SS/Medicare.
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