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Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:41 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
quote:
I always get a laugh when people think a line of -7 means that the favored team is the better team or that its 7 points better.
Exactly.
The Saints opened at 7.5 wins. Vegas isn't bearish on the Saints. Vegas thinks the general public is bearish on the Saints.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:44 pm to Ryan3232
By those who control the enterprise - professional, conference, etc...it doesn't matter
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:45 pm to Ryan3232
Just hire one of these guys to set the line.
on historyvshollywood.com
quote:
According to Sports Illustrated, Frank Rosenthal is "one of the greatest living experts on sports gambling". -Sports Illustrated article "The Biggest Game in Town"
quote:
Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal, the real Sam, is credited with putting sports betting in Las Vegas casinos. In 1976, he set up the first sports book in the Stardust, which featured six large televisions. -USA Today
on historyvshollywood.com
This post was edited on 5/28/22 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:46 pm to crimsonsaint
quote:THIS! In a casino perfect world, THEY WANT A 50/50 SPLIT! Their goal is to get all bet split this way, and why the line moves. If more bets come in on Team A, than Team B, the line moves to encourage more bets on Team B. The vig is what they after.
50/50 means the bookies and casinos eliminate the risk and collect the juice.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:49 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
If you have to bet 110 to win 100 how do they break even if it's exactly 50/50
Loser is out $110. Winner nets only $100. The other $10 goes to the book.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:53 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
The amount of shite you post on this site that is wrong is staggering
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:00 pm to Ryan3232
Very sophisticated statistical models plus inside information, as others have said. The closer the lines close at compared to what they opened at, the "better" the bookie priced it because it means lots more money didn't come in on either side to make them move the odds. In reality it means they got the public to bet evenly on both sides because each side of the bet "felt" fair to them.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:06 pm to Ryan3232
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:10 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
50/50 is ideal for the casinos and bookies because the juice or vig is where the money is made with zero risk for them to lose money.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:10 pm to Ryan3232
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:13 pm to Ryan3232
There are formulas. But the bettors ultimately control the line.
Let's say its a random NFL game and the line comes out on Tuesday and its Home Team -7.5. People start jumping heavy on Home Team -7.5. The line will start moving. It goes to -8, if people start betting heavy on it then it goes 8.5. And then it isn't until -9 that they start seeing more movement on the away team, but if there is still a lot more bets on the home team, they might move it to -9.5 because they don't want too many bets on one side because if it covers then they take a bigger hit so they have to get it to be more even.
Let's say its a random NFL game and the line comes out on Tuesday and its Home Team -7.5. People start jumping heavy on Home Team -7.5. The line will start moving. It goes to -8, if people start betting heavy on it then it goes 8.5. And then it isn't until -9 that they start seeing more movement on the away team, but if there is still a lot more bets on the home team, they might move it to -9.5 because they don't want too many bets on one side because if it covers then they take a bigger hit so they have to get it to be more even.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:18 pm to Ryan3232
Bookie sends code to pool makers (the collective who seeks to align on desired outcome of game to tilt $ bets toward) who then sets direction for brokers, who have runners to referee / umpires and “bank” players (the ones who most influence the outcomes of a game most of the time) on payroll, for desired outcomes. Simple really.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:21 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
If they get 50/50 on both sides the book makes juice. Which is the point. Go talk to any bookie and they will explain this.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:23 pm to LSUTigahss
he's asking who/what sets the line to begin with
frick yall are collectively stupid
frick yall are collectively stupid
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:24 pm to Ryan3232
It’s just a formula based on power rankings. People always remember the ones where the line was spot on and think “oh god Vegas is so great yada yada yada, how did they know” but forget all the ones where they are way off. It’s just a line to get people gambling. Nothing more, nothing less.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:35 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
quote:
I always get a laugh when people think a line of -7 means that the favored team is the better team or that its 7 points better.
Yet how many football bets a weekend are right on the number or off a few points?
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:37 pm to Ryan3232
This thread is horribly misinformed. An even split is not the goal all the time. There are plenty of lines where 90%+ of the money is on one side. The goal is to entice the public into making an emotional bet rather than basing it on the facts.
For instance in the SEC Championship most of the money was on Georgia, 94 percent at UGA -6.5.
LINK
For instance in the SEC Championship most of the money was on Georgia, 94 percent at UGA -6.5.
LINK
This post was edited on 5/28/22 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 5/28/22 at 8:39 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
For instance in the SEC Championship most of the money was on Georgia, 94 percent at UGA -6.5.
That's the exception, not the rule. Joe Public gets heavily involved in championship games
Posted on 5/28/22 at 9:05 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
Assume the game is Saints(home) and Falcons. Saints are favored by 7.5. Bookie in New Orleans has 80% of total action bet on Saints. This makes him nervous. He then moves enough action to another bookie so that he has 50% bet on Saints and 50% on Falcons. Assume his total action is $25k on each team. He will make $2,500 in vig from winners. Basically he has leveled his book and as a result he can't lose.
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