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Started By
Message
How exactly are lines decided in gambling?
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:25 pm
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:25 pm
If we put together a large cumulative sample size, it always seems like Vegas is spot on with how they put together their over/unders. I would believe that the live lines are computer generated towards the current score, but is there a group of people for each betting site that gets together and votes on what each line and prop bet should be?
I have so many questions.
I have so many questions.
This post was edited on 5/28/22 at 7:44 pm
17
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:28 pm to Ryan3232
No idea but it’s scary how good they area. I’d have to think millions of algorithms based on data and at least a little bit of inside knowledge
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:28 pm to Ryan3232
They have mathematical formulas designed to draw in the same amount of money on both sides.
The formulas are proprietary, but they could probably be reverse engineered by someone very good at math and/or computer programming.
The formulas are proprietary, but they could probably be reverse engineered by someone very good at math and/or computer programming.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:29 pm to Ryan3232
Where the Fook do you people come from?
We had a poster asking how Subway advertised and now this?
We had a poster asking how Subway advertised and now this?
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:30 pm to Bestbank Tiger
I understand that the lines change in regards to how everyone is betting, but when the original line is made before a single bet is placed, who decides on that? (AKA who presses SEND on the email)
This post was edited on 5/28/22 at 7:46 pm
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:31 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:I guarantee you dont actually know the answer to this thread.
Mingo Was His NameO
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:32 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
They have mathematical formulas designed to draw in the same amount of money on both sides.
You are almost there. The idea is to get a slightly more amount of money on the losing side of the bet. 50/50 means the bookies and casinos and sports book just break even.
I always get a laugh when people think a line of -7 means that the favored team is the better team or that its 7 points better. It is all about getting 50.1 percent to lose and 49.9 percent to win. It has nothing to do with the better team.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:32 pm to PerceivedReality
quote:its insane. It really is.
No idea but it’s scary how good they area.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:32 pm to Ryan3232
a secret cabal of Mormons
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:33 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
quote:
more amount of money on the losing side of the bet. 50/50 means the bookies and casinos and sports book just break even.
If you have to bet 110 to win 100 how do they break even if it's exactly 50/50
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:33 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
quote:100%, but where is the initial line decided?
You are almost there. The idea is to get a slightly more amount of money on the losing side of the bet. 50/50 means the bookies and casinos and sports book just break even. I always get a laugh when people think a line of -7 means that the favored team is the better team or that its 7 points better. It is all about getting 50.1 percent to lose and 49.9 percent to win. It has nothing to do with the better team
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:35 pm to Ryan3232
quote:
but when the original line is made before a single bet is placed, who decides on that?
Some wiseguy. The opening line still has its roots to Meyer Lansky who realized that casino games are still favored toward the House and there's no reason for the House to cheat.
This post was edited on 5/28/22 at 7:38 pm
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:36 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
quote:
You are almost there. The idea is to get a slightly more amount of money on the losing side of the bet. 50/50 means the bookies and casinos and sports book just break even.
You're forgetting the vig.
The book holds back a percentage (such as 9%) of the payouts. So the losers pay the winners and the book makes a commission off the winners.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:37 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
You're forgetting the vig.
Ding ding
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:38 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
quote:
50/50 means the bookies and casinos and sports book just break even.
50/50 means the bookies and casinos eliminate the risk and collect the juice.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:38 pm to Ralph_Wiggum
quote:And of course there is no transparency on how they decide where to draw the line.
Some wise guy. The opening line still has its roots to Meyer Lansky who realized that casino games are still favored toward the House and there's no reason for the house to cheat.
Keep in mind that there are thousands of different bets each day that all have an over/under that are decided in some regard.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:39 pm to Ryan3232
They have teams of statisticians and data scientists that analyze the numbers.
Posted on 5/28/22 at 7:40 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
designed to draw in the same amount of money on both sides.
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