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Message
re: Here's why the country is freaking out and under virtual lock down - mathematical reason
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:40 am to SaintsandTigers
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:40 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
When the curve flattens, people will still be dying and getting infected. I dont see the fear being gone.
True. But seeing a downward trend would calm a lot of the fears.
Most of the fear right now is being driven by the unknown.
0
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:41 am to TH03
quote:I am not disagreeing these measures will help slow a virus
We will see. They're learning more about this thing every day and trying to develop a vaccine.
I don't think it's unwise to say "hey let's not congregate thousands of people in one place then fly back to homes across the country." It's literally how you win the game plague Inc.
I am arguing is this smart. There will be more novel viruses. Hell, we have had 5-6 in the last 10 years or so. Now that we have reacted this way, the cat is out of the bag. I do not know on the scale of balance if this is the best way to handle things
Yes life matters. But so does money, jobs, etc etc
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:41 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
Whats the end game? When can people gather again?
That's what I can't figure out about this freakout. What's the risk-return calculation here?
Granted that this virus is currently deadlier (per case) than the flu and other normal viruses.
Granted it's bad that sickly elderly people are having a hard time surviving it.
But still, it is a virus that's out there in the world (meaning we need to develop antibodies for it at some point) and that 97+% of people can fight without too much difficulty. We are going to shut everything down for that? It seems like we are in the long run making ourselves weaker and setting a really bad precedent.
Would the world even be livable for humanity right now if we ran scared from every virus that popped up throughout history?
Eta:. I 100% support all efforts to isolate the elderly from exposure. The rest of us should not necessarily be running from this thing.
This post was edited on 3/12/20 at 8:44 am
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:42 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
Whats the end game? When can people gather again?
Just wondering if anyone has a plan
China, who welded doors shut, did that for a month. They are just coming out and about and its very limited.
Admittedly by you, we arent taking those measures. So our cancellations and measures would need to be longer correct? So maybe 2 months? 3? People are going to keep dying. People are going to keep getting infected. This virus isnt going to just disappear. Whats the end game to continuing to live normal life?
I expect the worst restrictions here to be a month/6 weeks or so. Flatten the curve, etc.
We do not have China's density, and while we may have bungled the start of this, we're probably better (administratively) moving forward. So I suspect we can hopefully get the same benefits out of shutting down large scale events and letting people make their own decisions to bail on things for the next month or so. I don't think we'll need to lock people in their houses, soccer moms and corporate liability-avoidance will help us without those things.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:43 am to TH03
Do any of you realize that no one under the age of 80 has died from this? Not using this as an excuse to not care about it, but this virus hasn't killed a non elderly person yet, on the entire planet. See below, the confirmed cases where someone died only applies to those over 80, as they are the only age group that has died from this.
And to be clear, i don't think we should be ignoring this virus. My Grandma would most likely die if she caught this. I don't want her going anywhere, and i'm not visiting her anytime soon either as a precaution. I know we should all be extra careful right now, but there's so many stupid blatant lies out there it's causing normal people to be irrationally stupid.
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And to be clear, i don't think we should be ignoring this virus. My Grandma would most likely die if she caught this. I don't want her going anywhere, and i'm not visiting her anytime soon either as a precaution. I know we should all be extra careful right now, but there's so many stupid blatant lies out there it's causing normal people to be irrationally stupid.
[/url][/img]Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:43 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
I am arguing is this smart. There will be more novel viruses. Hell, we have had 5-6 in the last 10 years or so. Now that we have reacted this way, the cat is out of the bag. I do not know on the scale of balance if this is the best way to handle things
All the more reason to get experience in widespread efforts like this.
If Covid had the mortality of SARS (officially 10%, widely believed to be 15-20%), where would we be right now?
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:44 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
Do any of you realize that no one under the age of 80 has died from this?
Qualify this as in America
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:45 am to Pettifogger
If this had the mortality rate of SARS we would have acted more quickly. But it doesn’t.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:45 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
Do any of you realize that no one under the age of 80 has died from this?
I assume you mean in America because plenty of people in their 50s and 60s have died worldwide, including active medical professionals.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:45 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
If this had the mortality rate of SARS we would have acted more quickly. But it doesn’t.
Would we? We have absolutely no precedent for response to something like this.
We will now, and that's a good thing.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:46 am to Pettifogger
quote:
All the more reason to get experience in widespread efforts like this.
Maybe that's right. Or maybe this will amount to crying wolf.
I think we should keep our powder dry for when there's a more deadly pandemic.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:47 am to Pettifogger
quote:Funny you mention SARS
If Covid had the mortality of SARS (officially 10%, widely believed to be 15-20%), where would we be right now?
Fatality rate of 9.6%. We didnt shut everything down
Swine flu
1,000,000 cases in the first 3 months just in america
We didnt shut everything down
Nobody looks back at those events as catastrophic. Hell, its all but forgotten in everyday life and it only happened years ago.
So what changed?
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:49 am to SaintsandTigers
Asking that question is politicizing this issue and makes you a terrible person
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:49 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
I am arguing is this smart. There will be more novel viruses. Hell, we have had 5-6 in the last 10 years or so. Now that we have reacted this way, the cat is out of the bag. I do not know on the scale of balance if this is the best way to handle things
I think if anything this means we will be better prepared for other or worse ones.
Italy became a disaster and we are learning from that and trying to prevent that from happening.
The economy will be fine. There's also the Saudi oil stuff hurting it too. If I could pick only one thing to fully believe in trump for, it would be fixing the economy after this. He's done nothing to show he shouldn't have my complete trust in that aspect.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:49 am to SaintsandTigers
Just wait and you will understand
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:50 am to Slimeball
quote:
like we shouldn’t be taking it seriously is unbelievable.
I take all illness seriously, I just don't freak out like musch of the public is doing.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:51 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
Nobody looks back at those events as catastrophic. Hell, its all but forgotten in everyday life and it only happened years ago.
Shouldn't we be thankful for this?
Do you people want a catastrophic event? Because you seem to be hating people for taking measures to prevent one.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:52 am to tgr4ever
quote:
I really think a thread like this needs to be stickied.
A lot of misinformation out there right now.
A lot of misinformation in the OP, too.
The cases doubling in various countries is not because the virus is doubling, but because they are testing more. I'm not arguing that the cases are increasing - hell, they might be increasing FASTER than reported in the OP - but the increase is being driven as much by the amount of testing as by the actual spread of COVID 19. In other words, "Not Math!"
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:52 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
Fatality rate of 9.6%. We didnt shut everything down
27 cases in US with no deaths. Also SARS doesn't become infectious till like 5 days after you show symptons, which immediately helps contain the spread.
quote:
Swine flu
1,000,000 cases in the first 3 months just in america
We didnt shut everything down
Mortality rate of only 0.01% to 0.8%
12,000 people still died
quote:
So what changed?
Maybe trying to prevent 12,000 people from dying?
Posted on 3/12/20 at 8:53 am to TH03
No. What we are saying is this disease is being hysterically hyped up now for what every reason and will end up being less of a medical
Issue than those
Issue than those
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