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Started By
Message
re: Here's why the country is freaking out and under virtual lock down - mathematical reason
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:22 am to beebefootballfan
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:22 am to beebefootballfan
quote:
It’s like the F’n cold. Of course it’s going to spread. Do you know how many old people die yearly due to complications due to the common cold? Find that number for me.
It's your argument and you want us to find the data to make it?
1
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:22 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
those most worried and in agreement with the cancellations dont have their flu vaccine
Those people are hypocrites.
I've gotten the flu shot every year for as far back as I can remember. I get it at my yearly physical.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:23 am to Pettifogger
quote:
I just think this is a bad comparison
Why? Are lives not important regardless of the means the reaper uses?
If you want apples to apples, you would want this done every flu season. We average more than 20k deaths from the flu every year with millions affected.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:23 am to stout
Muh, muh, muh, my Corana!
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:24 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
We have 50% of this nation that does not take a vaccine that we know helps prevent illnesses and death with a known deadly virus and I rarely see people protesting or losing their mind/caring. Where is the logic?
What? There are huge campaigns ever year for people to get the flu vaccine.
But retards choose not to get it. Those people are morons.
quote:
And the strange thing is, my personal anecdote, and my wifes who is a doctor, those most worried and in agreement with the cancellations dont have their flu vaccine
My person anecdote, my entire family has the flu vaccine.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:24 am to ell_13
quote:
In 2009 when swine flu hit, it caused 300k hospitalizations in less than a year. There was no panic and our system didn’t collapse over the extra strain on hospitals.
We would be hospitalizing millions if we took no action to slow the spread. This is a disease, like the Spanish flu, that could infect 30% of the population. That's about 100 million people. Estimates are that 1% would die - that's a million folks. It's safe to say that the total number hospitalized would be at least four times the number of fatalities, so 4 million. Now, they would not all hit the hospital on the same day, but if you assume a three month epidemic period in the US, and a two week hospital stay, that's 622,000 hospital beds required IF the cases are spread out evenly. More likely, it could peak at a million beds.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:25 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
If you want apples to apples, you would want this done every flu season. We average more than 20k deaths from the flu every year with millions affected.
well that isn't apples to apples
We have built in immunity and/or vaccines for the flu. People choose to not get the flu vaccine.
We don't have this for COVID
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:25 am to Penrod
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:25 am to MojoGuyPan
quote:
t's slowing down in those countries because they are on lockdown. In china people can't travel, go to school, must stay at home. Can only go out to make groceries once per week. That slowed it.
What happens when they get out of lockdown? Might the disease spread again? Seems likely, and you can't stay on lockdown for too long.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:27 am to ell_13
el, seriously, what are you laughing at? I'm not sure we should be shutting things down. Maybe the right answer is to let it run its course, but I do believe it could get ugly.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:28 am to Penrod
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:29 am to Salmon
quote:
well that isn't apples to apples
Of course. You can always find reasons why something doesn't apply when it doesn't confirm your beliefs.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:30 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Of course. You can always find reasons why something doesn't apply when it doesn't confirm your beliefs.
ummmm what?
you are the one ignoring that we have a vaccine for the seasonal flu
This post was edited on 3/12/20 at 9:31 am
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:31 am to Penrod
I was told there would be no math
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:32 am to Salmon
quote:
you are the one ignoring that we have a vaccine for the seasonal flu
To be fair we have vaccines for certain flu strains and hope, with scientific estimates and predictions, the one chosen for that year is correct
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:33 am to Penrod
quote:
We would be hospitalizing millions if we took no action to slow the spread. This is a disease, like the Spanish flu, that could infect 30% of the population. That's about 100 million people. Estimates are that 1% would die - that's a million folks. It's safe to say that the total number hospitalized would be at least four times the number of fatalities, so 4 million. Now, they would not all hit the hospital on the same day, but if you assume a three month epidemic period in the US, and a two week hospital stay, that's 622,000 hospital beds required IF the cases are spread out evenly. More likely, it could peak at a million beds
frick this made me buy another pallet of TP
This post was edited on 3/12/20 at 9:34 am
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:35 am to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Why? Are lives not important regardless of the means the reaper uses?
Well, considering people elect to drive cars, in certain places, at certain times, under certain conditions, etc. - no, they're not the same.
quote:
If you want apples to apples, you would want this done every flu season. We average more than 20k deaths from the flu every year with millions affected.
Again, no. The fatality rate is higher, the transmission rate is higher, and the likelihood of wide community spread at dense events is higher.
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:35 am to Salmon
quote:Yes we have a vaccine
you are the one ignoring that we have a vaccine for the seasonal flu
But is is still undeniable flu deaths would still go down if we cancelled large events and school every single winter. But our risk appetite is fine with where we are
This post was edited on 3/12/20 at 9:36 am
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:35 am to Salmon
quote:
you are the one ignoring that we have a vaccine for the seasonal flu
You mean the one that's nominally successful?
What about the bird flu?
Far more deadly and we didn't shut society down.
Seems the wise thing to do is protect the vulnerable since they're the ones dying from this illness.
The hysterics are a symptom of extreme risk aversion. And yes, it is hysterics.
This post was edited on 3/12/20 at 9:36 am
Posted on 3/12/20 at 9:38 am to Street Hawk
Is there a graph that shows what percentage of the infected are admitted to a hospital?
Seems some are assuming all infected need a hospital bed.
Seems some are assuming all infected need a hospital bed.
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