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Message

re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:17 pm to
Posted by Ed Osteen
Member since Oct 2007
59224 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:17 pm to
Had a brain fart and thought saudia sold the MOTIVA in TX, my b
Posted by DavidTheGnome
Monroe
Member since Apr 2015
31517 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:17 pm to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:18 pm to
quote:

Mississippi hides from another storm



Posted by LSU Fan 90812
A man more eviler than Skeletor.
Member since Feb 2005
50655 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:18 pm to
Totally makes sense. I've been wondering what's going to happen to all these people post storm with houses flooded. I guess Texas has no shortage of space.
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
25424 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:20 pm to
I have a question for the experts.

It seems the slight shift east has put the "eye," if there even is one, passing just to the west of me, but not by much.

Looking at the hourly forcast though shows not a super high chance of rain, or anywhere close to tropical storm force winds here.

Is this because so much dry air is feeding in now that those just east of the eye are not going to catch much of anything?
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:23 pm to
Yeah, dry air and shear is preventing convection directly over the center of circulation.

There are some high winds in there, but the primary threat is rain displaced to the north and east of the center.
Posted by Hold That Tiger 10
Member since Oct 2013
25424 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:26 pm to
Thanks

I think I've actually learned a little bit in these threads. Weather has always interest me.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:27 pm to
quote:

Lol why is LSU closing?


They are often in the side of waiting too long and putting commuters in danger. This time, the weather probably won't justify the closing.

Making them gunshy again and probably getting someone killed in the future with their never thought out closure decisions.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14258 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:28 pm to
Beaumont at 32.55 and continuing after 121 hours...

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 16 FOR TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PRELIMINARY
RAINFALL TOTALS AND WIND REPORTS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 29 2017

...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PRELIMINARY OBSERVED RAIN TOTALS AND WIND
REPORTS...

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 900 PM CDT...THESE ARE THE MOST RECENT PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AND
WIND REPORTS FROM TROPICAL STORM HARVEY. PLEASE REFER TO NHC FOR
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HARVEY.

...SELECTED PRELIMINARY STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES FROM 800 PM
CDT THU AUG 24 THROUGH 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 29...

...LOUISIANA...
W-14 AT JOE SPEARS RD 17.52
KENNER GULLY AT MARK LEBLEU 17.09
W-6 AT WARD LINE ROAD 16.93
BELFIELD DITCH AT BELFIELD ROAD 15.97
GOLDSMITH CANAL AT HWY 171 15.38
IOWA 0.9 ESE 14.88
BAYOU ARSENE AT HECKER ROAD 14.53
EB L-14 AT IOWA BASEBALL FIELD 14.25
LAKE CHARLES 11.5 SSW 13.25
INDIANT BAYOU AT COFFEY ROAD 12.91
INDIAN BAYOU AT COFFEY ROAD 12.80
LACASSINE BAYOU AT LORRAIN BRIDGE 12.68
HACKBERRY 5 SSE 12.33
RAGLEY 5.0 SE 12.06
GILLIS 4 WSW 11.44
CONTRABAND BAYOU AT 18TH STREET 11.26
ZAVALLA 2 ESE 11.24
CHOUPIQUE BAYOU AT HWY 90 11.02
SULPHUR 2.2 E 11.00
LACASSINE NATIONAL 2 ENE 10.55
W-4 AT NELSON ROAD 10.35
WELSH 0.7 W 10.11
BAYOU DINDE AT PICARD ST 9.76
LEBLEU SETTLEMENT 2 WNW 9.64
FORKED ISLAND 5 ENE 9.37
PECAN ISLAND 2 E 9.14
FORT POLK 8.91
BUXTON CREEK AT DOUGLAS ROAD 8.90
NEW IBERIA/ACADIANA 8.59
LAKE CHARLES MUNI ARPT 8.05
BUNDICK CREEK NEAR DE RIDDER 7.13
BON WIER 2 ENE 7.12
TOPSY 4 NNW 7.12
VERNON - FTS 6.83
LAFAYETTE RGNL ARPT 6.76
KAPLAN 1 SSE 6.29
PITKIN 7 NNW 6.09
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT 5.16
NEW ORLEANS/LAKEFRONT 4.72
SLIDELL 2.46

...TEXAS...
CEDAR BAYOU AT FM 1942 51.88
CLEAR CREEK AT I-45 49.40
MARYS CREEK AT WINDING ROAD 49.20
DAYTON 0.2 E 46.08
HORSEPEN CREEK AT BAY AREA BLVD 45.60
SANTA FE 0.7 S 45.02
BERRY BAYOU AT FOREST OAKS BLVD 44.80
BERRY BAYOU AT NEVADA 44.44
LITTLE VINCE BAYOU AT BURKE RD 43.52
HOUSTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 43.38
FRIENDSWOOD 2.5 NNE 42.76
PASADENA 4.4 WNW 42.58
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU AT 8TH ST 42.32
ARMAND BAYOU AT GENOA-RED BLUFF RD 42.16
TURKEY CREEK AT FM 1959 42.12
WEBSTER 0.4 NW 41.77
LEAGUE CITY 2.7 NE 41.66
ARMAND BAYOU AT PASADENA LAKE 41.20
TAYLOR LAKE AT NASA ROAD 1 40.44
JACINTO CITY 37.60
HUNTING BAYOU AT LOOP 610 EAST 37.00
TELEPSEN 36.60
FIRST COLONY 4 WSW 36.34
BEAMER DITCH HUGHES RD 36.32
LA PORTE 1 N 36.24
BAYTOWN 2 NW 35.64
MOUNT HOUSTON 35.60
HOUSTON/CLOVER FIELD 33.37
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR 32.55
HOUSTON/INTERCONTINENTAL 31.26
KATY 6 NE 31.23
HOUSTON/WILL HOBBY 27.88
HOUSTON/D.W. HOOKS 27.01
GALVESTON/SCHOLES 22.66
COLLEGE STATION 2 SSW 19.64
VICTORIA 3.8 NW 15.60
AUSTIN 4 SSE 10.28
AUSTIN/MUELLER MUNI ARPT 10.07
CORPUS CHRISTI 3.6 S 6.23
Posted by Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
24078 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:30 pm to
So what time is landfall?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:32 pm to
quote:

baytiger


I believe you mentioned earlier in the thread that you're not a big fan of the HRRR, but I could be mistaken. Regardless, I've been watching the hourly runs for the past 24 hours, and it seemingly has done an excellent job verifying those runs. I'm wondering if you've seen the same, and if so, do you believe that has anything to do with Harvey's shoddy structure? To ask it another way, do you think the HRRR handled it better because it wasn't behaving like a traditional tropical cyclone any longer?



This was the 10z HRRR run this morning, for example.
Posted by AmosMosesAndTwins
Lake Charles
Member since Apr 2010
19013 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:35 pm to
Around 6-7a I believe
Posted by TigerFox
Member since Jun 2013
314 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:36 pm to
Is turning off the main breakers to a house advisable before it takes on water?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:36 pm to
quote:

CEDAR BAYOU AT FM 1942 51.88
CLEAR CREEK AT I-45 49.40
MARYS CREEK AT WINDING ROAD 49.20
DAYTON 0.2 E 46.08
HORSEPEN CREEK AT BAY AREA BLVD 45.60
SANTA FE 0.7 S 45.02
BERRY BAYOU AT FOREST OAKS BLVD 44.80
BERRY BAYOU AT NEVADA 44.44
LITTLE VINCE BAYOU AT BURKE RD 43.52
HOUSTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 43.38
FRIENDSWOOD 2.5 NNE 42.76
PASADENA 4.4 WNW 42.58
LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU AT 8TH ST 42.32
ARMAND BAYOU AT GENOA-RED BLUFF RD 42.16
TURKEY CREEK AT FM 1959 42.12
WEBSTER 0.4 NW 41.77
LEAGUE CITY 2.7 NE 41.66


As bad as it was for Houston, the fact that most of the rain fell in the SE to E parts of the suburbs was a huge break. If those totals are on the NW side of the city, the flooding is likely even worse.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:37 pm to
quote:

Is turning off the main breakers to a house advisable before it takes on water?




I'm pretty sure it is advisable, but I've seen countless people keeping the power on, even if the water was over the outlets.
Posted by tigercraig
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2003
3819 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:38 pm to
Slackster

Can you post the latest HRRR?
Posted by Fonzarelli
Dallas
Member since Jan 2015
4103 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:42 pm to
I am supposed to be flying from New Orleans to Nashville Saturday morning.

Is this something I should cancel now?
Posted by redfieldk717
Alec Box
Member since Oct 2011
28117 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:44 pm to
Gas price definitely going up...along with the lubricants that I sell, mentioned earlier, I sell fuels in bulk.

All of the terminals, that I have access to pricing, have raised gas prices no less than 40 cents/gal since yesterday morning. If/when it goes up tomorrow, hello 3.00 - 4.00 gas
Posted by Signal Soldier
30.411994,-91.183929
Member since Dec 2010
8593 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:44 pm to
quote:

I am supposed to be flying from New Orleans to Nashville Saturday morning.

Is this something I should cancel now?



Yes, LSU game was moved to New Orleans, not Nashville.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54755 posts
Posted on 8/29/17 at 10:53 pm to
quote:

question from a now out of stater: is Baton Rouge and New Orleans seeing an influx of houstonians evacuating? Kind of a reverse Katrina movement or is it still too soon?



No. Houstonians are going to go to San Antonio, Austin and Dallas. New Orleans would be way, way down the list.
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