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Message

re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:12 pm to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91869 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:12 pm to
quote:

A friend's daughter is located right off of buffalo Bayou right before you go in town on Allen pkwy and Montrose in Houston. If anyone has any info about that area, it would be greatly appreciated.


If she doesn't have water yet, she probably won't get it. Buffalo Bayou is starting to recede in that area.
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

12Z Euro has a landfall near Cameron Louisiana in 48 hours


Does this mean bad things for Lafayette and Acadiana?
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43310 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:13 pm to
Think that is a few thousand feet in the air more like 25-30mph i bet.
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11029 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

at that point, what kind of weather am i looking at (besides wind at 39-73mph)? tornadoes, rain, etc.?


What more do you want, loss of gravity?
Posted by Dire Wolf
bawcomville
Member since Sep 2008
40675 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:14 pm to
Sienna plantation is under a mandatory excavation. God speed y'all
Posted by theOG
Member since Feb 2010
10855 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

What more do you want, loss of gravity?


is that in the cards?
Posted by colorchangintiger
Dan Carlin
Member since Nov 2005
30979 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

Where are people getting that it is moving N?



At 10 AM it was located at 28.5ºN, 96.0ºW. At 1 PM it was located at 28.6ºN, 95.8ºW.
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
104369 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

so on thursday i'm supposed to be driving from nola to oklahoma city, which will pretty much have me driving right through the middle of the storm.


I would consider leaving early, going up through Jackson -> Greenville -> Little Rock -> OK City.
Posted by LesterFreamon
HTX
Member since May 2017
381 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

Houston Tunnels have obviously taken on water. I'm in the BOA building and they said the flood doors there are holding right now but are leaking a small amount.


You must be reading the same email I just read. All levels of the theater district garage have flooded (not a shocker).
Posted by MorbidTheClown
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2015
76670 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:14 pm to
which one of the spaghettis is usually more accurate?
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:15 pm to
Bevil Oaks, TX just northwest of Beaumont, TX is now under a mandatory evacuation according to KFDM
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43310 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:15 pm to
I am not an expert hopefully Duke or someone else will give you a better answer I would say more rain and some breezy conditions.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91869 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

strong band over SELA. Note that the 50+ knot winds are NOT at the surface since this analysis is for a few thousand feet above MSL.


The screenshot you posted doesn't necessarily translate to severe weather under those winds. Just an FYI.
Posted by Throwing Stones
Member since Jun 2017
112 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:15 pm to
The sun is out in northern Acadia Parish
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

which one of the spaghettis is usually more accurate?



TVCN is the consensus model, usually what NHC follows for their track.
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11029 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:16 pm to
quote:

which one of the spaghettis is usually more accurate?



They're a waste of time. Look at the euro model or at least the GFS.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40251 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:17 pm to
I"m sitting home in my comfy house ... I just can't fathom where they will put these people much less HOW these poor people will get out!

This is totally absolutely unbelievable. I have no words.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

They're a waste of time. Look at the euro model or at least the GFS.



Not entirely. Each model has it's own purpose. Some are better for intensity, some for path, some for weak vs strong storms.. If you know what each one does most have a purpose.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91869 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

12Z Euro has a landfall near Cameron Louisiana in 48 hours

Does this mean bad things for Lafayette and Acadiana?


It's no worse for that area now than it was 6-12 hours ago. Potentially heavy rains remain the concern, but most of the rain is focused on SWLA and SE TX still.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14562 posts
Posted on 8/28/17 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

doesn't necessarily translate to severe weather under those winds. Just an FYI.


Thanks for the explanation. I'm just a weather watcher that's still learning.
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