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Started By
Message
re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:18 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:18 am to ShaneTheLegLechler
Concerned about the 290/610 merge as it dips low there. Hearing 610/Yale is ok so I'd have to get there
1
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:18 am to Duke
quote:
Presentation looking "better" since he dipped out over water. Actually kind of amazing he's as organized as he is at this point.
Convection starting to build to the west of the center. That would be concerning if it's able to cut off the dry air influence from the west...
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:19 am to CypressTrout10
quote:
Serious question: Are there any places in Houston that arent under?
I have family in Clearlake (pinebrook sub) and they have not flooded. water in streets but not over the sidewalks.
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:19 am to Upperdecker
@sjralakeconroe
"It is estimated that Lake Conroe's inflow is roughly 130,000 cfs. That is an enormous amount of water."
"What is the estimate of CFS input into the lake at this time, relative to ~73,000 CFS discharge?"
"It is estimated that Lake Conroe's inflow is roughly 130,000 cfs. That is an enormous amount of water."
"What is the estimate of CFS input into the lake at this time, relative to ~73,000 CFS discharge?"
This post was edited on 8/28/17 at 11:22 am
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:20 am to Foreskinski
That's a fake profile.
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:21 am to slackster
I'm on Northshore and we've been getting pounded by rain past few hours. It will be interesting to see just how much rain we get by this thing by Thursday. SELA might be seeing a lot of flooding too unfortunately. Lake Charles must be getting a shite ton of rain especially on that current projected path going to suck for them.
This post was edited on 8/28/17 at 11:23 am
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:22 am to List Eater
LINK
Center not stacked vertically. That's good news as it will need to line that up to increase development.
Now for the bad part.
quote:
SUMMARY...STEADILY INCREASING CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF HARVEY'S CENTER ALONG DEFORMATION ZONE. ADDITIONAL 3-6" ADDITIONAL TOTALS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FLASH FLOODING.
quote:
CENTER OF HARVEY HAS SLIPPED JUST OFF THE TX COAST SE OF MATAGORDA BAY. WHILE EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 6.9UM WV SUGGESTS MID-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS JUST ASHORE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER E MATAGORDA/SW BRAZORIA COUNTY DENOTING A SLIGHT NORTHEAST TILT TO THE SYSTEM. 7.3UM WV ALSO DEPICTS STARK DRY CONVEYOR/SLOT COVERING SE TX INTO SW LA.
Center not stacked vertically. That's good news as it will need to line that up to increase development.
Now for the bad part.
quote:
OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION NEAR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE ALSO SUPPORTED BY REMAINING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT. AS SUCH CONVECTIVE AREAS HAVE FORMED WITH SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT BACKBUILDING ACROSS SW BRAZORIA AND NE BRAZORIA/S HARRIS COUNTIES...DEEP MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES SUPPORT RAIN RATES OF 1.5"/HR OVER SATURATED SOILS PROLONGING THE HISTORIC FLOODING CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:22 am to baseballmind1212
quote:
Anyone know if this is still legit? Leaving my house in sienna within the hour
Co worker of mine is taking that route currently. They are also saying that 99 from 59 is clear up to i10.... not sure about that however. I had heard from local Law enforcement that 99 south of i10 was a cluster from those in Cinco moving out
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:23 am to slackster
Kinda looks like the center of the circulation is filling in and potentially cutting off the intake of dry air. Not good.
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:24 am to LSUfanNkaty
Can confirm that Ryno and family have left Sienna and are on route to SA. Probably best to GTFO too.
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:25 am to ChopBlockOclock
rds did your people get help?? I know there's a thread for that but you're in this one and not that one. Praying that they did.
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:26 am to ihometiger
Where exactly is all of this water from Lake Conroe flowing to?
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:26 am to List Eater
Good deal... That's where my co worker was going as well! Safe travels to all
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:27 am to Duke
quote:
DEEP MOISTURE AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES SUPPORT RAIN RATES OF 1.5"/HR OVER SATURATED SOILS PROLONGING THE HISTORIC FLOODING CONDITIONS IN THE REGION.
Is this more for the East side of Houston?
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:27 am to slackster
quote:
Convection starting to build to the west of the center. That would be concerning if it's able to cut off the dry air influence from the west...
Looks like Harvey has brought the moisture being pulled over Louisiana toward his center. Backs up the idea of the dry plume being slowly displaced farther east and slowly shifting the focus of the Louisiana convection east as well.
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:28 am to Duke
What does that mean rainfall wise for SELA?
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:28 am to Duke
What does that mean for the future path, if anything?
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:28 am to ChopBlockOclock
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:28 am to TthomasJR
quote:
Is this more for the East side of Houston?
Pretty much for all of the Houston metro really.
Posted on 8/28/17 at 11:29 am to Duke
quote:
Looks like Harvey has brought the moisture being pulled over Louisiana toward his center. Backs up the idea of the dry plume being slowly displaced farther east and slowly shifting the focus of the Louisiana convection east as well.
In laymans terms?
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