re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

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If it hit LA, how long would it take from the time it entered the gulf?

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Going by averages, a few days.

so like hurricane katrina type date. great.

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More interested in 92L

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92L has many road blocks ahead of it. 91L will have to be watched for a late hook north, a Texas landfall wouldn't be out of the question.

Interesting fact:

If 92L & future 93L become named storms before the 22nd we would have more named storms than 2005 at this point.

rds wants that rain for Texas. Free brewing water.

Hurricane party

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I'm watching 92L more closely.

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18z GEFS all of sudden wakes up

One of the reasons the models have been struggling so bad here lately is because of the complex upper level environment across the Atlantic. In the image below, there is a potential vorticity streamer stretching from the Islands all the way across the Atlantic.



As Gert makes the turn north, it pumps out a bunch of -PV and the PV streamer fractures into a series of upper level lows or +PV anomalies



This increases shear and drives dry air down into the tropics. Now these are spinning off into the Atlantic and the models don't handle them well



Both the GFS and Euro have been snuffing out 92L with one of these +PV anomalies (just north of the Islands)



The models struggle with these upper level features and their movement can make or break a tropical system. This will go a long ways to determining if 92L can do anything down the road.

new euro is interesting. it has the system in the central gulf. still lots of time to watch and not panic right now.