- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
3
Posted on 8/18/17 at 5:45 am to GEAUXmedic
Looking to make landfall around in Houston in that graphic
Posted on 8/18/17 at 6:00 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
The Euro breaks down the subtropical ridge, while the GFS doesn't.
I always wonder what little factor or group of factors these models use differently that can create such a varied forecast.
Posted on 8/18/17 at 6:32 am to East Coast Band
quote:
I always wonder what little factor or group of factors these models use differently that can create such a varied forecast
Every model has different equations.. some models use other model input to make their own output, they have different resolutions, purposes, but they all rely on data. When you put shite data in, you get shite data out. It's like a butterfly effect too.. one little difference in makes a huge difference out. Some models perform better than others in different situations such as terrain differences, over water compared to in the continental US, tropical storms, etc.
What we can take from the models so far is that the gulf is primed to rapidly intensify a storm, whether that ends up being Harvey, 92L, or none.
This post was edited on 8/18/17 at 6:37 am
Posted on 8/18/17 at 6:42 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
And here is the difference between the Euro and GFS. The Euro breaks down the subtropical ridge, while the GFS doesn't.
On the prior page, I laid out one of the reasons that the models were going to struggle with this setup and that is what is happening with the 00z Euro. When the PV streamer fractured several ULLs spun off and one is lingering over the Gulf on that Euro run. That never allows the ridge to fully build over the Gulf and gives Harvey a window to move north. Also, the models have been over doing ridging in the medium range all summer, just another thing to watch.
Posted on 8/18/17 at 6:55 am to rds dc
What are your personal thoughts on the GFS replacement?
Posted on 8/18/17 at 6:59 am to GEAUXmedic
00z Euro (not pictured but the hi-res actually has it down to 950)
Posted on 8/18/17 at 7:10 am to rds dc
Saw that 92L track map and thought, "Well we know what that track looks like."
fugggggggggg
957mb is what Cat 2?
Not a joke but are those pumps going to be operational again by next week???
NOLA will be on the wet side of that track.
fugggggggggg
957mb is what Cat 2?
Not a joke but are those pumps going to be operational again by next week???
NOLA will be on the wet side of that track.
This post was edited on 8/18/17 at 7:11 am
Posted on 8/18/17 at 7:13 am to rds dc
So that would be high end cat 3, almost cat 4... ~125 mph.
Posted on 8/18/17 at 7:13 am to 50_Tiger
Those models are meaningless at the moment. Just too far away to get that specific. Needs to be watched for sure but not time to panic.
Posted on 8/18/17 at 7:14 am to 50_Tiger
This is actually Harvey, not 92L.. but the main takeaway is whichever storm ends up in the gulf has a lot of untapped warm water to play with and could easily bomb.... Then again, neither one could end up in the gulf. Way too early.
This post was edited on 8/18/17 at 7:15 am
Posted on 8/18/17 at 7:21 am to GEAUXmedic
quote:
What are your personal thoughts on the GFS replacement?
It appears to be a train wreck in the tropics but need to let the full season play out and then review the data. IMO, it has shown some improvement in other areas.
Posted on 8/18/17 at 7:49 am to rds dc
A couple of models that have been upgraded, that show some improved skill.
The 00z NAVGEM, showing something similar to the Euro:
The 00z CMC Ensembles:
The 00z NAVGEM, showing something similar to the Euro:
The 00z CMC Ensembles:
Posted on 8/18/17 at 8:22 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
I watched Levi Cowan's video from yesterday, this morning, and he mentioned a MASSIVE High that is roughly due north of Harvey, and that they were forecasting that the High would follow Harvey west (or something like that).
Is that not what you guys are seeing?
Posted on 8/18/17 at 9:24 am to Geecubed
quote:
I watched Levi Cowan's video from yesterday, this morning, and he mentioned a MASSIVE High that is roughly due north of Harvey, and that they were forecasting that the High would follow Harvey west (or something like that).
Is that not what you guys are seeing?
I haven't had a chance to watch Levi's latest updates but he is usually spot on.
This post was edited on 8/18/17 at 9:26 am
Posted on 8/18/17 at 9:35 am to rds dc
I like those tracks a whole lot more rds! 
Posted on 8/18/17 at 9:38 am to rds dc
Both the HWRF and the new HMON (image below) are now putting Harvey in the BOC and heading NW.
Posted on 8/18/17 at 9:42 am to rds dc
Looks like a decent shift Northward on the 12Z tracks, although I could be wrong.
Posted on 8/18/17 at 9:50 am to lsuman25
quote:
Looks like a decent shift Northward on the 12Z tracks, although I could be wrong.
Yea, tracks have been slowly shifting north since they were showing it going right into CA.
Page 3 of 618
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News