re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

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Min pressure: 947 mb

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Dude on TWC just said they will not be surprised to see this stay as a hurricane for 36-42 hours after initial landfall.......

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Intensity forecasts become complicated once a hurricane develops
concentric eyewalls, and fluctuations in intensity become more
likely. If an eyewall replacement occurs, then Harvey's intensity
could decrease a bit while at the same time the overall wind field
increases in size. However, the hurricane remains in an environment
for intensification, and strengthening beyond the current intensity
is still possible before the center reaches land. But in the end,
the hurricane's exact intensity at landfall does not change the
fact that catastrophic flooding due to a prolonged period of heavy
rainfall and/or storm surge is expected at the coast and well inland
across much of southern and southeastern Texas. Slow weakening is
expected after Harvey crosses the coast since the center is not
expected to move very far inland, and the cyclone is likely to
maintain tropical storm status through Wednesday.

Harvey has not quite begun to slow down, and the initial motion
estimate is 315/9 kt. Strong mid-level ridging building over the
western United States is still expected to impede Harvey's forward
motion in the coming days, and the track guidance continues to show
the hurricane meandering or stalling near or just inland of the
Texas coast in 36-48 hours. Harvey could begin moving slowly
eastward on days 4 and 5 due to the influence of a mid-level
shortwave trough digging southward over the upper Midwest, but at
this time it is too early to say whether the center will definitely
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

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2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged
period of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for
several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.

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