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Message
1
Posted on 9/23/15 at 12:49 pm to musick
so if current forecast of a system with a pressure bw 1008 to 999 would be mean this will be a TD or TS correct? I have friends heading to Destin next weekend 
Posted on 9/23/15 at 12:52 pm to Duke
quote:
It's over 10 days away and computer models are just throwing out junk that far out.
ah, i see the date now. well whatever it does i hope it holds out that long, heading to 30a saturday
Posted on 9/23/15 at 5:23 pm to musick
quote:
it's almost October.
No storm is going to happen.
Not saying that one will happen but the calendar certainly doesn't rule it out
Posted on 9/23/15 at 5:36 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
I'm intrigued now. Skeptical, but intrigued.
Yea, the models have been locked in on something forming for a while. The Euro EPS has been on it for over a week now. I remember looking at it last week while waiting out a thunderstorm at the trailhead and thinking that was the first time this season that the EPS had consistently had a signal in the Gulf beyond D12.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 5:44 pm to gmrkr5
quote:
why is that?
It's from a trash model that has issues with convection causing it to be spin up happy. That run for instance, it goes convection crazy allowing the system to strengthen and stack up before moving towards the Yucatan. Then it kind of snowballs from there. Beyond that, it handles the ULL over the WGOM/Texas different than the other models.
Posted on 9/23/15 at 7:35 pm to rds dc
This is the CMC model which is highly inconsistent but figured I'd leave this here.
This post was edited on 9/23/15 at 7:36 pm
Posted on 9/23/15 at 8:02 pm to jlu03
Holy shite these models are either on to a major natural disaster or are comfrickinpletely wrong.
FYI: my spellcheck had no problem with "comfrickinpletely"
FYI: my spellcheck had no problem with "comfrickinpletely"
This post was edited on 9/23/15 at 8:03 pm
Posted on 9/23/15 at 11:27 pm to TDsngumbo
00z GFS looks like a weak system with landfall around S. Plaquemines Parish. This is slightly stronger than what was shown earlier today
Posted on 9/24/15 at 7:06 am to rds dc
Posted on 9/24/15 at 12:30 pm to rds dc
GFS is pretty locked in on a weak system moving N. out of the SGOM. Image below shows the last 4 GFS runs
12z GEFS doesn't have that much spread but does catch the area from Houston over to the Panhandle
A few things to watch moving forward, where does the early vort consolidate, how fast does it move early on, how does the ULL over the WGOM / Texas evolve.
Earlier consolidation, esp E or SE of the Yucatan, could allow the system to take on more traditional tropical characteristics. That would also probably result in slower movement, further allowing early strengthening. However, it will ultimately come down to the ULL over the WGOM / Texas. The position and orientation of this feature will play a big role in how shear plays out over the GOM next week and there is still a good bit of uncertainty associated with it.
12z GEFS doesn't have that much spread but does catch the area from Houston over to the Panhandle
A few things to watch moving forward, where does the early vort consolidate, how fast does it move early on, how does the ULL over the WGOM / Texas evolve.
Earlier consolidation, esp E or SE of the Yucatan, could allow the system to take on more traditional tropical characteristics. That would also probably result in slower movement, further allowing early strengthening. However, it will ultimately come down to the ULL over the WGOM / Texas. The position and orientation of this feature will play a big role in how shear plays out over the GOM next week and there is still a good bit of uncertainty associated with it.
This post was edited on 9/24/15 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 9/26/15 at 11:43 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/27/15 at 8:56 am to Jim Rockford
It's happening. 
Posted on 9/27/15 at 10:15 am to meauxjeaux2
How did you guys do yesterday ?
Posted on 9/27/15 at 2:20 pm to N2cars
Did shite. Nothing but sea monsters at the L&N bridge.
Posted on 9/27/15 at 6:20 pm to rds dc
So, anything more than the little showers we had today?
Posted on 9/27/15 at 7:08 pm to Methuselah
I don't think we will get much. Most models have the low moving to our East and the shear is going to be screaming which will push most of the rainfall and any winds well to the North and East of the center. May get a few slugs of moisture like we did today but that should be it, which is actually pretty good since we need the rain right now.
Posted on 9/27/15 at 8:47 pm to BigB0882
Posted on 9/27/15 at 8:57 pm to rds dc
Taiwan about to be obliterated.
Posted on 9/27/15 at 9:27 pm to rds dc
This has GOT to be the one to watch!
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