re: General Tornado Thread

just in time for Jazz Fest


looks like SELA is on the low risk side. Hope so.

Timmer actually comes South a good bit ..,

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Timmer actually comes South a good bit ..,

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I would bet that a lot of them chase this all the way to Bama. The next 7 to 10 days look pretty lame and the long range signals aren't encouraging. This might be the only gig for them for a while.

One of the local weather guys in Memphis think the worst will pass to our south....closer to the I-20 corridor than to I-40. What do the OT weather guru's think?

I don't know jack about the weather, but this time of year I don't like seeing temperatures and humidity climb like this ahead of a storm front. That seems to correlate with a stronger system, more winds, lightning, etc.

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He copy/pastes from a local weather website (where he's an admin), and I'm not sure he can interpret them (I could be wrong about this though). Not to be critical, but if he wants people to understand what he's posting, he needs to do a better job of explaining them. And to stem the obvious question, I don't post in these threads because, well, we live in South Louisiana where inclement weather is common and I don't spend much time reviewing or analyzing these types of events. This is really my off season.

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I explain whats going on, as for the maps, i share them cause there are a few here who do understand them, and if someone asks I would explain them, but most only care about "whats going to happen", which is explained in the title and OP, and I would make more posts as relevant information comes out (which nothing really new has developed). And yes, I can interpret them.

Most of your postings are fairly self explanatory.
Keep up the posts.
I usually only scan the spc site and weather.gov (not to be confused with the Weather Channel's POS weather.com site) So I appreciate the extras.

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One of the local weather guys in Memphis think the worst will pass to our south....closer to the I-20 corridor than to I-40

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Some of the local guys really know their stuff and can make calls like that but some are clowns. I would say it is probably too early to make a call like that given the number of items that won't be pinned down until tomorrow afternoon and even the day on Sunday. Just based on the 00z data tonight, I would think that a lot of the I-40 corridor could be under the gun but Memphis could end up being on the northern fringe. It is really just too hard to say given that a lot of what makes up a tornado outbreak is driven by mesoscale features that the models still can't resolve, even in the short range.

Hopefully he didn't take offense to my post, it was merely constructive criticism from someone that's been doing this a lot longer than him. I've said it before, anyone can copy/paste, but it takes that extra step of explaining in a way that people without any experience in weather patterns, meteorology, atmospheric sciences, etc. can understand. I'm not Rag, just some friendly advice.

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Post in WYHI and Mullet Toss threads 

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Geauxmedic, do they know you post here in these threads?

For the Birmingham area:



From Jackson:


More perspective on the event:



Some words from the local weather offices:

Birmingham:
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...HAIL... AND
FLOODING POSSIBLE. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
HAVE SIDED WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT AN MCS WILL FORM ALONG THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE MCS WILL BE
ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE LINE.THE SECOND ROUND WILL COME AS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE THIRD AND
HOPEFULLY FINAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE MAIN CLOSED LOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.WITH THE LAST WAVE WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEEP LAYER SHEAR POSSIBLE. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE PREPARE TO TAKE YOUR SEVERE
WEATHER PRECAUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Jackson:
THE INITIAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE DELTA REGION...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT OVER MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA LATE MONDAY. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING RISK WILL INCREASE AS WE GO INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

New Orleans:
GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TAKES PLACE MONDAY WITH STRONG
INSTABILITY AND HIGH HELICITIES FOR TORNADO PRODUCTION ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER...THE
WEATHER MODES TRANSITION TO MORE OF A STRAIGHTLINE WIND AND HAIL
POTENTIAL WITH COLD POOL DYNAMICS MOVING IN. THE GREATER THREATS
STILL APPEAR FARTHER NORTH BUT SOUTHWESTERN MS AND PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA MAY STILL GET INVOLVED.

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Hopefully he didn't take offense to my post, it was merely constructive criticism from someone that's been doing this a lot longer than him. I've said it before, anyone can copy/paste, but it takes that extra step of explaining in a way that people without any experience in weather patterns, meteorology, atmospheric sciences, etc. can understand. I'm not Rag, just some friendly advice.

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I know, and believe me, the graphics I copy paste can explain things far better than I can. I'll be the first to admit that "explaining in a way that people without any experience in weather patterns, meteorology, atmospheric sciences, etc. can understand" in that way is not my strong point.

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Geauxmedic, do they know you post here in these threads?

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Almost everyone I know either posts/reads here