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re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

Posted on 9/9/24 at 4:49 am to
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 4:49 am to
6z GFS is coming out now.


Edit:
About 5-10 miles to the west and a tad weaker.
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 4:52 am
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 4:53 am to
6Z GFS coming through the Atchafalaya Basin between Layayette and Baton Rouge
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 4:54 am to
New Orleans folks are getting an invite to ICON party this morning.
Posted by Gene Heinous
the Pleasure Dome
Member since Sep 2021
768 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 4:57 am to
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 4:59 am to
She's getting that look on satellite. As soon as a center forms, it's on.
Posted by doublecutter
Member since Oct 2003
7150 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:09 am to
quote:

ICON


???
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:12 am to






In comparison to Ida, at the ICON's nearest point to my location, the pressure is 986mb. My lowest pressure during Ida was 972mb so this would be considerably weaker than Ida, not that anyone needed to be reminded of that but since that's our most recent experience I figured I'd mention it.
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 5:15 am
Posted by Old Man and a Porch
Member since Dec 2023
863 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:12 am to
Has any new information come in overnight that gives you a better handle on intensification? I saw it posted last night low cat 1 to a low cat 3.
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:14 am to
quote:

TDsngumbo


quote:

She's getting that look on satellite. As soon as a center forms, it's on.

My god you really don't like lafourche or terrebonne
Posted by maisweh
Member since Jan 2014
4222 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:16 am to
quote:

I saw it posted last night low cat 1 to a low cat 3.

Unless it's from one of the big 3 here I don't believe it. Seems like the last few years every time I see it a few days out saying it should be a 1 or 2 it's a 4
Posted by LSUlefty
Youngsville, LA
Member since Dec 2007
28522 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:16 am to
Damn, rights towards Lafayette
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:18 am to
I'm not getting anything done at work today or tomorrow
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 5:20 am
Posted by BOSCEAUX
Where the Down Boys go.
Member since Mar 2008
52402 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:20 am to
quote:

Welp, that’s an eastern shift


At least a full H
Posted by doya2
Charenton
Member since Jan 2005
8868 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:23 am to
One more eastern shift will put it between New Iberia and Morgan City
Posted by Swagga
504
Member since Dec 2009
19263 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:26 am to
Man some of you really need to put the bottle down. Impressive meltdowns in here last night.

At this point it’s clear someone in LA is taking this one. Let’s just hope the intensity stays low. We can handle Cat 1 storms as inconvenient as they are.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:26 am to
HAFS-A hurricane model would be the most impactful for sela with a 978mb hurricane sitting right over southern Ascension Parish late Wednesday night. This was as of the 0z update, though. According to my eye, the hurricane models aren't updating again until 18z so we might have to wait a bit to see what those do.

All the other hurricane models show it coming into southwest or south central LA.






This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 5:32 am
Posted by BOSCEAUX
Where the Down Boys go.
Member since Mar 2008
52402 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:27 am to
Looking at the steering currents Morgan City is about as far east as it can go.
Posted by tketaco
Sunnyside, Houston
Member since Jan 2010
21746 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:33 am to
Nice shift.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50747 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:33 am to


She's looking good this morning.
Posted by elprez00
Hammond, LA
Member since Sep 2011
31554 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 5:33 am to
This thing is going to be moving right? No chance of Ida taking the San Antonio stroll through the state?
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