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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/12/24 at 10:54 am to SpartanSoul
Posted on 9/12/24 at 10:54 am to SpartanSoul
quote:
Then why on the NHC's own site and map do they call it "Forecast Track Line"?
read on the graphic:
the CONE contains the probable path of the storm center.
or if you go to the NHC website and read the text below the graphic:
quote:
NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5.
Maurepas was inside the cone.
the storm hit Maurepas.
but even if you insist on only using the line instead of the cone, at 4am, they had the very center of the line roughly midway between Baton Rouge and Lake Maurepas.
so they "missed" dead center of the eye by 15-16 miles.
1
Posted on 9/12/24 at 10:55 am to 94LSU
quote:I can’t believe people are discussing this as much as they are. It’s weather, it is incredibly dynamic
actually not that big a difference. Anyone who's been through these things can tell you all bets are off when it hits land unless it's a Cat3+ freight train.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 10:58 am to Schmelly
Every last bit of dutchtown too. Seems like the vast majority of people outside of dutchtown faired very well.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:02 am to fightin tigers
quote:
The area of miss is about the same as a miss of South Beach to Ft Lauderdale. Not that much.
Anyone not from South Florida would consider those two to be pretty close. But when you live in the area you think they are far apart.
because people instinctively think in terms of driving distance vs straight line distance.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:06 am to Nutriaitch
can we move on from blaming the weather men/women to posting pictures of damage?
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:10 am to Turnblad85
quote:
Hey now, don't question the Great NHC. I know we know that fed gov organizations are wholly inept but the one exception is the Great NHC. Crazy but its true. And we shouldn't push for better performance because they are doing as good of a job as possible so there's no room for improvements. In this one instance, big gov has nailed it. All the other gov outfits are trash; not this one though.
Anotha one
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:14 am to Chuckiee
quote:
Thanks to everyone in here that provided constant updates and insight. I’ve never hit the refresh button so often. Much appreciated everyone
You're welcome pal. Little people like you are the reason we keep putting in the work.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:15 am to SohCahToa
Spent the morning cleaning up branches and debris but thankfully no damage. Very lucky because it was blowing pretty good last night. Prayers to all that have issues to deal with this morning and thanks to the ones in the know who kept everyone updated through the whole ordeal.
This post was edited on 9/12/24 at 11:18 am
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:16 am to hashtag
quote:
can we move on from blaming the weather men/women to posting pictures of damage?
I know Montegut got smoked, but haven't been able to get very many pictures.
My parents are down there and cell service is completely out right now.
know they're good, but don't have a ton of details.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:25 am to Jake88
quote:
Jacquelyn Hotard is definitely the best looking parish president. I'm not linking a pic because they don't do her justice compared to how she looked on Fox just now.
No doubt
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:28 am to BRgetthenet
How did you come out up in Mandy?
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:29 am to Turnblad85
The job of the NHC is to pinpoint the current and future coordinates of the Center of Circulation. They did that with extreme accuracy, especially once there was a defined center.
The worst impacts of this particular storm were fairly far removed from the center of circulation. Usually, they are closely aligned, this time, because the storm unraveled as it approached shore, it was not.
The job of the NHC is not to predict where the worst damage will be.
We all know the worst damage comes in the northeast quadrant when storms are on this approach and that’s exactly what happened here, except for it was a little further away from dead center than we normally see.
.
The worst impacts of this particular storm were fairly far removed from the center of circulation. Usually, they are closely aligned, this time, because the storm unraveled as it approached shore, it was not.
The job of the NHC is not to predict where the worst damage will be.
We all know the worst damage comes in the northeast quadrant when storms are on this approach and that’s exactly what happened here, except for it was a little further away from dead center than we normally see.
.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:31 am to Nutriaitch
Part of the roof of the Lions club got pulled off just the metal. Little sister said it just looked like a lot of tree damage … low water pressure and no power
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:32 am to Nutriaitch
Easy formula for Francine
EURO...Further WEST near BR
GFS..... further down toward Grand Isle
NWS just Split the difference in the Middle
We can all be our weather men when we see the contrast in Forecast Models
EURO...Further WEST near BR
GFS..... further down toward Grand Isle
NWS just Split the difference in the Middle
We can all be our weather men when we see the contrast in Forecast Models
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:32 am to Tiger Ryno
A brief perimeter assessment was performed with results suggesting zero damage.
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:38 am to Hulkklogan
quote:
I have att fiber at home and it's been fine
So do I. It’s been out since 8PM last night. Ughhh…
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:38 am to BRgetthenet
Glad to hear it. Were you able to conduct the 6am safety briefing with HOA and Sherrifs personnel? Did everyone have the new branded rain jackets?
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:39 am to all_over_it
quote:
Part of the roof of the Lions club got pulled off just the metal. Little sister said it just looked like a lot of tree damage … low water pressure and no power
I did see a pic of the Lions Club
how long you been living in Montegut?
do I know you?
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:43 am to Nutriaitch
Just as long as you … S. L. Check your facebook baw
Posted on 9/12/24 at 11:50 am to all_over_it
quote:
Just as long as you … S. L. Check your facebook baw
feel like we have this discussion for every storm.
I need to remember your user name
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