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2
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:01 pm to slackster
That looks like the same track,
No?
No?
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:01 pm to tigersownall
quote:
Well frick. This isn’t good.
A whole 5mph isn't a big deal.
The bad news it is strengthening into landfall
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:01 pm to TchoupitoulasTiger
I’m in Houma, and there’s no way this is coming in as a cat 2.
It’s a lil gusty but reminds me of when a big cold front rolls in.
It’s a lil gusty but reminds me of when a big cold front rolls in.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:01 pm to LegendInMyMind
People like that give Louisiana a bad name. Someone took one of those during Laura too. Marks one of the best I hate that for him.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:01 pm to slackster
Cat 2. Just upgraded.
This post was edited on 9/11/24 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:01 pm to LetTheValleyShake
quote:
Satellite, radar, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
data indicate that not only has Francine stayed well organized
during the past six hours despite increasing westerly shear, it has
strengthened a little. The latest reports from the aircraft showed
the central pressure has fallen to near 972 mb with maximum 700
mb flight-level winds of 99 kt to the southeast of the center.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt.
That flight level 99kt extrapolates to 86 mph. It's deepening but winds lag behind pressure. Recon is running out of passes so I have a feeling NHC is bumping it up on the thought it will become 100 mph after they run out of time to do recon passes. Strong Cat 1/Weak Cat 2 is statistical noise as far as impacts are concerned, for anyone concerned.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:02 pm to SWLA92
HTV thinks its falling apart as it's announced as a cat 2 
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:02 pm to LSUDUCKMAN67
quote:
there’s no way this is coming in as a cat 2.
I doubt the NHC is lying about it
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:02 pm to Large Farva
quote:
Is this the brown water effect that caused it to strengthen in the shallow water?
I'm thinking it is.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:02 pm to The Boat
That makes sense
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:02 pm to slackster
quote:
The bad news it is strengthening into landfall
yep. people get caught up with categories, but it's really not that much of a difference when it's on the edge like this. I do not like this strengthening going into the coast though
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:02 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
That looks like the same track,
No?
quote:
The initial motion is now 045/15 kt. The flow between a mid- to
upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level
trough over Texas should steer Francine northeastward for the next
12 h or so. The hurricane is expected to make landfall along the
Louisiana coast in the next few hours and move across southeastern
Louisiana tonight. After that, a turn toward the north on the east
side of the trough will bring the center of Francine across
southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. This should be
followed by a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed
until the cyclone dissipates. The new track guidance is a little
faster than for the previous advisory, so the new forecast track is
similar to, but faster than, the previous track.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:02 pm to Impotent Waffle
quote:
That looks like the same track, No?
It definitely didn’t take that northern jog they predicted
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:02 pm to Large Farva
quote:
I thought there was shear once it hit land. Is this the brown water effect that caused it to strengthen in the shallow water?
I think westerly shear has been impacting the structure of the storm for the last couple hours.
This post was edited on 9/11/24 at 4:05 pm
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:03 pm to slackster
Wow. What a shift East. WAFB was right.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:03 pm to LSUDUCKMAN67
quote:
I’m in Houma, and there’s no way this is coming in as a cat 2.
It's probably not but they think it will become one after they run out of time to do recon passes based on the pressure dropping.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:03 pm to rds dc
They’re calling it a Cat 2 now?
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:03 pm to TchoupitoulasTiger
This is coming right at me.
Posted on 9/11/24 at 4:04 pm to slackster
quote:
Graphic isn't out yet but NHC 12h forecast is Amite City, splitting between LaPlace and Donaldsonville
Well shite. That moved back to the East for the NorthShore.
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