re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

quote:

---

This "storm" still hasn't passed over Anadarko's Gunnison Spar at Garden Banks OR it's down to 20 kts. Taken 3 hrs to get back up to this speed. I always watch the buoys and offshore platform stations. They are better than all the whiz bang stuff used by today's weather forecasters.

---

They’re a good tool but they are obviously fixed locations. You have to get lucky with the path vs recon that is actively flying through the heart of the storm multiple times.

This is the the Garden Banks Magnolia TLP. The anemometer is 190 feet above sea surface which will show much higher winds than closer to surface.

I’ll be honest after Katrina we had hired a bunch of guys from all over the world. They would kill the ducks on vets and west esplanade and thought they were a delicacy. Same with nutria they thought they were beavers

quote:

---

100mph peak 10s wind found on that current flight

---

Flight level I believe, but still strongest at flight level so far.

The Jen Carfagno bikini pictures are actually Maria Menounos.

quote:

---

Found the yat

---

Nope

Francine is behaving about as expected as we approach a Wednesday evening landfall in SE LA. Francine has left her favorable environment and has entered the harsh northern Gulf of Mexico.

Entering cooler seas in the northern Gulf. Still warm enough on it's own if there were no other environmental factors but not the bathtub usually seen in July and August.



Francine has left a pocket of deep, high quality warm water off the US/Mexico border. Notice that most of the storm's strengthening occurred over that area. On another note, you can see the well defined loop current in the eastern Gulf. We all remember the loop current from Katrina and Ida.



Shear is very strong over the northern Gulf.



You can see the impact it's having on the structure. Clouds streaming north on satellite.



A ton of dry air working its way into the system.



You can see the impact the dry air is having as the eye has opened up on the southern side. It's taking on a halfricane shape as I like to call it.



Add this all together and you have a system that will struggle to strengthen as it approaches the coast. The large eye and open nature of it will make things difficult on it. Maintaining wind speed as pressure slowly ticks up is the most likely scenario. Pressure has started to slowly tick up in the latest recon.



Intensity guidance shows it maintaining strength or weakening slightly before making landfall.



The wind field of a weakening hurricane likes to spread out, almost like the hurricane is unwinding. Strengthening hurricanes usually have tight, intense wind fields while weakening hurricanes have less intense but broader wind fields. Think about Lafayette during Laura and Delta. Despite coming in at nearly the same spot, Lafayette experienced stronger winds during Delta despite Delta making landfall with 100 mph winds compared to Laura's 150 mph. Peak gust at Lafayette airport was 75 mph for Delta and 58 mph for Laura. So while this storm won't have the intense, catastrophic wind field, it will produce very broad and expansive wind impacts across SE LA.

You can see the hurricane-force wind field has expanded as the hurricane structure has degraded.

quote:

---

paperwasp

---

quote:

---

CWASP

---

In good news my dad and is ole baw neighbor slaughtered the bass in Cheramie yesterday south of Verret

quote:

---

In good news my dad and is ole baw neighbor slaughtered the bass in Cheramie yesterday south of Verret

---