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re: First case of COVID-19 in France traced back to December 27
Posted on 5/5/20 at 7:42 am to baldona
Posted on 5/5/20 at 7:42 am to baldona
quote:
I’m also completely confused by the liberal search for the original cases. They are trying to say it being around a lot longer is bad, yet that’s actually a good thing.
Maybe it’s a bad thing because it creates uncertainty around where it came from and how it spreads?
It’s entirely possible that there are people in that “they” category who are trying to get to the bottom of this and aren’t necessarily trying to win some partisan argument.
This post was edited on 5/5/20 at 7:45 am
0
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:04 am to SloaneRanger
quote:
Impossible. We have been told (including by many on this board) that the virus emerged from the Wuhan wet market in December.
You mean posters like.....you?
Or did you run so fast to the snark that you forgot that disconnecting the origin of wide dissemination from the Wuhan wet market outbreak also disconnects the only thread connecting the outbreak to that Chinese lab you’ve been making threads about over the last week/months.
This post was edited on 5/5/20 at 9:25 am
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:08 am to GetCocky11
Well that’s not possible. My trustworthy politicians that have my best interest in mind told me if I didn’t stay home and not live life, hospitals would be overwhelmed.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:13 am to TT9
quote:
It got here from Europe.
West coast from China.
I believe the NYC/East coast was traced to Italy+ flights from West Coast.
This post was edited on 5/5/20 at 8:14 am
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:20 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Speaking of false positives, they are far more likely with antibody testing, so it’s probably more likely your friend never had it in the first place.
He had all the symptoms and was hospitalized. But yeah it was probably just something extremely similar that we deal with on a regular basis.
I mean is this thing an extremely contagious virus that a large portion of the world was going to contract or not?
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:26 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
I bet this is a false positive. In fact, infectious disease scientists are already speculating that this is the case based on the amplification curve and the unusual lack of biological markers. Plus the patient responded quickly to anti-BACTERIAL medication.
Do you believe a large portion of false positives in the recorded cases are occurring? Is this level of testing scrutiny performed on every single test?
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:30 am to RollTide1987
So if that's the case, what is the deal with this thing. How could this thing have went around in December/January, yet the huge surge in deaths didnt come til very recently. What's the deal.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:33 am to QJenk
quote:
How could this thing have went around in December/January, yet the huge surge in deaths didnt come til very recently. What's the deal.
Technically, we haven't had a huge surge in deaths. Not to mention, it's hard to test for something you don't even know exists.
It'll be interesting to trace deaths in Dec/Jan that were coded as flu, pneumonia, etc. and review blood samples.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:44 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
buckeye_vol
I wish I had more downvotes to give you
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:51 am to QJenk
quote:
So if that's the case, what is the deal with this thing. How could this thing have went around in December/January, yet the huge surge in deaths didnt come til very recently. What's the deal.
The numbers have never added up. People are using evidence only to support their narrative and it has clouded the picture.
I personally think it is naive to suggest the first case occurred here after we were fully aware of it and bracing for its impact, or at least concerned it would make it here.
The “cause” of death due to Covid happens to be similar to the cause of other types of death that occur on a regular, ongoing basis. Just in this thread there is someone dismissing a fairly obvious early case because it was slightly before the recorded timeline.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:53 am to OceanMan
quote:I think they’re occurring, but they’re less likely in the diagnostic testing than the antibody testing, although false positives are usually a bigger issue in the diagnostic testing.
Do you believe a large portion of false positives in the recorded cases are occurring?
In other words, maybe one out of every 10,000+ diagnostic test of an uninfected individual yields a false positive, whereas anywhere from 1 in 10 to 1 in 250 yields a false positive in the antibody testing.
This post was edited on 5/5/20 at 8:56 am
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:54 am to Golfer
I hear what youre saying, but since we knew this thing was here and started seriously tracking, there have beem 70,000 deaths in 2 months. If it's been here 2 months before that, before social distancing was a thing, when there were hundreds of gatherings with thousands of people together on a weekly basis across the country. Were there hundreds of deaths in nursing homes across the US in January?
I want to believe this virus was here months before. I really do. But im just not seeing how. Maybe it was here, just in a much much less lethal strain. Even if that was the case, would a less lethal strain of this thing provide any sort of immunity to a more dangerous strain.
I want to believe this virus was here months before. I really do. But im just not seeing how. Maybe it was here, just in a much much less lethal strain. Even if that was the case, would a less lethal strain of this thing provide any sort of immunity to a more dangerous strain.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:58 am to QJenk
quote:Exactly. It didn’t just suddenly start killing people reaching thousands each day in a matter of weeks, yet was spreading rapidly for 3 months before it and barely registered on anyone’s radar at that time due to a lack of deaths.
Were there hundreds of deaths in nursing homes across the US in January?
Posted on 5/5/20 at 8:58 am to QJenk
quote:Thats not how you should look at it though
I hear what youre saying, but since we knew this thing was here and started seriously tracking, there have beem 70,000 deaths in 2 months
How many total deaths do we have these last two months. Now, take that number and compare it to normal
If it isnt alot more, then this would not have been noticed without us knowing about it. If it is alot more, people would have noticed regardless of knowing about it
This post was edited on 5/5/20 at 8:59 am
Posted on 5/5/20 at 9:01 am to Golfer
quote:In 2 months, it’s killed more than any pandemic since 1967-1968 and is on pace to pass 100,000 in the next month and only trail the Spanish Flu in terms of total deaths (not on a per capita basis though).
Technically, we haven't had a huge surge in deaths.
I don’t know what you consider a surge, but the leading cause of death on a daily basis seems like a surge, despite the fact it could have been much worse.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 9:02 am to lsupride87
quote:Excess mortality data across the world is quite dramatic, but that began in the past 6 weeks or so. This is why it’s extremely unlikely it was spreading outside or China before mid-January.
How many total deaths do we have these last two months. Now, take that number and compare it to norma
This post was edited on 5/5/20 at 9:03 am
Posted on 5/5/20 at 9:12 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Exactly. It didn’t just suddenly start killing people reaching thousands each day in a matter of weeks, yet was spreading rapidly for 3 months before it and barely registered on anyone’s radar at that time due to a lack of deaths.
Yet you are not arguing the spread over a 3 month period, you seem to be arguing that the first case (in France) did not occur less than one month before the first case in the US and the rest of the developed world for that matter.
You even argued that even though, given your data, there was no more than a 10% chance of a false positive, my friend likely didn’t have it in early January which would have just been a few weeks before the first recorded case in the US.
I’m just not sure what you find so implausible about this thing taking hold before the first cases were recorded.
Posted on 5/5/20 at 9:20 am to OceanMan
quote:Yes. I’m arguing a person who had no logical reason to have been exposed (e.g., travel) and no external supportive evidence of exposure and/or spread to and from the individual, then it’s unlikely he/she had the virus a month before the travel-related importation of the virus.
Yet you are not arguing the spread over a 3 month period, you seem to be arguing that the first case (in France) did not occur less than one month before the first case in the US and the rest of the developed world for that matter.
quote:If the entire US population was tested for antibodies before anyone was infected, then a test with when a 99% specificity would result in 3.31 million positive test results, all being false positives.
You even argued that even though, given your data, there was no more than a 10% chance of a false positive,
quote:We already have genetic analysis that shows spreading in New York in February before anyone knew it was happening.
I’m just not sure what you find so implausible about this thing taking hold before the first cases were recorded.
But I doubt it was spreading much sooner than that, and in places with a far less probability of introduction than New York.
And considering people have symptoms consistent with COVID-19 (flu, cold, etc.) for illnesses that are common and verified in the community, then it’s more likely it was one of those. Of course, it appears that loss of taste and/or smell maybe the symptom that helps differentiate covid.
This post was edited on 5/5/20 at 9:23 am
Posted on 5/5/20 at 9:36 am to Golfer
quote:
Technically, we haven't had a huge surge in deaths.
Wut? I guess it depends on how you define “huge”
It zoomed on by the worst flu season most doctors had ever personally seen.
This post was edited on 5/5/20 at 9:37 am
Posted on 5/5/20 at 9:45 am to RollTide1987
Why is it that every time something comes out suggesting that this virus isn't the killer we were told, the same posters flock to the thread to tell everyone how said news can't be true?
It's so strange.
It's so strange.
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