re: February 2019 Cold blast and southern snow discussion thread

quote:

---

hippies with no landscaping plants to worry about losing to a prolonged freeze.

---

Don't plant shitty palm trees around your double wide, and you wouldn't have that problem.

This is Louisiana, not Miami. Palm trees are trashy and a tryhard bat signal.

It always amazes me how quick these models change. What could have changed so much that 2 previous models had no freezing precip, then one does, then the next two don't?

quote:

---

What websites do you use?

---

I grab model runs from tropicaltidbits, because it's free and has enough tools in the models to figure out what I want to figure out. There are other sites that can get you longer range and shorter interval Euro runs.

quote:

---

Does it show systems out across the pacific?

---

Yes, most of the global models there will show pacific activity. Of course, you really have to take any of that with a grain of salt because there is no upper air sampling happening out there. Furthermore, as those systems enter the US on the model runs the lack of sampling leads to some misreading until the system is actually sampled.

Now to the Jan 23rd system that prompted this thread, no model support exists for anything but rain. Euro and new GFS have our low pressure, but it cuts up through central LA quickly. Nothing but rain from that. The big picture looks pretty NAO+ for the next couple of weeks, leaving a progressive pattern across the country. Cold comes quick, leaves quick. Lows quickly cut NE and leave the gulf south with just rain.

The long range stuff still looks promising for the start of Feb but the long range stuff has looked promising for cold for the last month and it really hasn't materialized. The split polar vortex impacts should set in over the NE at least, but not a lot yet to suggest it'll get pulled down this way.

It's not like any of this is unusual either.

quote:

---

What could have changed so much that 2 previous models had no freezing precip, then one does, then the next two don't?

---

They don't have the energy in the Pacific modeled well enough. Like I mentioned earlier, no sampling out there means a lot of guess work on the modeling side. Garbage in...

So as they evolve those system differently run to run, you get big swings in impacts. It's why the NWS doesn't bother forecasting out past 7 days.

I seent it, but it's a case of cold chasing precip. That typically dries out before it's cold enough to snow. Low pressure center has raced well north by that point. Not a set up I'd bet on.

I'll note there keep being hits on the globals, which potentially says the right ingredients can be in place. So no harm in keeping watch for the snow lovers but I'm not optimistic at this point. It'll at least feel like winter for some days.

Sorry bruh, no snow coming here next week.

There just isn't a good source region of truly cold air to tap into at the moment. We need some cross polar flow to set up and pull that cold over from Siberia. The temps up in Canada just aren't anything extreme enough to bring us really cold air. We will be lucky to just see a freeze or two out of the next couple of fronts.

quote:

---

We will be lucky to just see a freeze or two out of the next couple of fronts.

---

Im hoping that pattern continues. This late in the game lets just keep it warm and move on

quote:

---

Sorry bruh, no snow coming here next week.

---

You may want to go check the NWS forecast for Baton Rouge Wednesday night.

00z GFS



00z Euro

12z GFS is pretty close to ideal with the low set up. Running across the gulf, we're on the nice north colder side.

But it's even close to cold enough.





Just not enough deep cold to find it's way down here. Probably how this one ends up playing out. Euro mostly on board with where the low is, but any snow that shows up would probably never touch the ground. The dry side should win.

Way out in fantasy land on the GFS, we actually have what would be a good snow event to open up February. It's again, fantasy, but indicative the cold pattern flip that's about to be ushered in looks to stick around and with the active southern stream trucking disturbances through here there's a window that could have things line up. Enough cold will still be the issue, as the source of all this energy is warm.

But I know the OP dreams of a sounding like this:



***Hour 384, Peej is a better forecaster at this range***

GFS is starting to gain some consistency on some level of a snow event for N. Louisiana on Wednesday

00z



06z



12z



18z