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re: Fauci says 400k will likely die by January
Posted on 10/8/20 at 10:38 am to Lebowski
Posted on 10/8/20 at 10:38 am to Lebowski
How can we lose that many in 4 months when it took 6 months to get to 200k. Also I thought wearing mask was going to slow it down so we gonna have more deaths while we wear masks?
2
Posted on 10/8/20 at 10:42 am to tigafan4life
quote:
Also I thought wearing mask was going to slow it down so we gonna have more deaths while we wear masks?
Just like the stupid mask mandate in LA. We had 22,000 more cases 30 days after the mandate than we did the 30 days prior to it. But yet here we are in OCT and still dealing w/ this foolishness all for political reasons.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 11:10 am to tigafan4life
quote:Only explainable reason is that, due to our asinine actions (i.e. shutdowns), we have simply pushed this back to flu season, rather than appropriately managing it/letting it run its course prior to flu season.
How can we lose that many in 4 months when it took 6 months to get to 200k. Also I thought wearing mask was going to slow it down so we gonna have more deaths while we wear masks?
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 11:12 am
Posted on 10/8/20 at 11:25 am to ZappBrannigan
quote:
It's him and two other people, the other two have masks, and he has a mask he brought down temporarily for saying something. If paparazzi followed us around they would catch every arse scratch too.
No doubt about that.
I think a lot of people have a problem with him denying everyone else the pleasure he is partaking in. Kind of an a-hole move to say everyone except him is allowed to go to the game.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 11:49 am to reddy tiger
Um, but the "experts" keep getting caught in outright LIES as well as continually getting it just plain WRONG....
After a while, you're no longer really an "expert"....
After a while, you're no longer really an "expert"....
Posted on 10/8/20 at 11:53 am to TigerMyth36
quote:
400k is not that much worse than a really bad flu season.
I don't think that's correct
Posted on 10/8/20 at 11:57 am to Lebowski
Is it just me or does anyone else not give a frick about what fauci says? frick him and frick masks.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 12:05 pm to upgrayedd
It’s only like 3.5-4 times as bad as a bad flu season.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 12:05 pm to lazy
quote:Who gives a shite about Covid cases? There are millions of cases in our country's massive population. Yet, a couple of hundred thousand actual deaths in 7 months in this country's massive population.
cases have tripled in Stockholm this week.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 12:30 pm to Lebowski
so that math would require over 1k deaths on average per day from Oct 1 to Jan 1.
yeah, that's not going to happen ... not even close. he can't decide whether a mask helps or not and now he's predicting death counts 90 days in advance. stfu.
yeah, that's not going to happen ... not even close. he can't decide whether a mask helps or not and now he's predicting death counts 90 days in advance. stfu.
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 12:32 pm to VolsOut4Harambe
quote:
I don't trust a man who throws like this.
Holy shite how is someone that unathletic
Posted on 10/8/20 at 1:31 pm to dgnx6
quote:
What restrictions did they have and how many salon owners were arrested for giving haircuts?
Anyone tasered for not wearing a mask being more than 6ft away from anyone?
Yeah, shut up.
They limited gatherings of 50 or more back in March and it's still in effect today. They also prohibited visits to nursing homes after theirs got ravaged by it in the first go around. But it looks like they are starting to lift that restriction now.
LINK
Look, I am very interested in the Sweden approach. I think there's a lot of great logic to it and I commend them for making their own decision. But let's not act like they did absolutely nothing in terms of restrictions and then attack people who say as much.
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 1:55 pm to Lebowski
What is the us death numbers today vs same day 2019? Does that info exist?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:30 pm to Lebowski
So as many people will die from the virus in the next three months than have died in the first 9? That's his story?
I'll take that bet and spot him 100K.
I'll take that bet and spot him 100K.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:32 pm to Lebowski
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:36 pm to Lebowski
Fauci meant to say his 401k will die by January (not 400k). Assuming Biden is elected. Simple mistake. Only off by .25%
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:57 pm to ItNeverRains
quote:
What is the us death numbers today vs same day 2019? Does that info exist?
I actually looked into this a few months ago because I wanted to see how total deaths looked this year compared to previous years. All I could find when I looked on the CDC website is total deaths for 2018 and before. 2019 will probably come out in the next few months.
In addition, because of covid, the CDC does have a running total deaths (covid or not) for the year starting in February. I am sure those numbers are subject to correction after they are reviewed like previous years, but that is the best number we have. So you can use that as well.
When I looked at this back in early September and when I took our total deaths between Feb and August, and then extrapolated that over the year, deaths were on track to go up about 10% compared to 2018.
Now, that is assuming that the monthly death rate I calculated remained consistent, which is a big assumption (I could see the rate going up and I could see it going down). But it was the best I could do.
But if it held up and deaths were up 10% from 2018, that is a rather large jump over a two year period. Although it is not as scary as it seems either.
Because when I compared the change in total deaths between 2016 and 2017 it went up like 2.5% and then 1% from 2017 to 2018. So, if you took the average of those increases and applied it to the 2018 actual to estimate 2019 and then again to 2020, that gives you a very rough estimate of what our deaths would be in 2020 if there wasn't covid. Then if you compare that to the extrapolated 2020 number, it lead to us having 180k more deaths than what we would have expected in a covid-less 2020 based on the past trends.
Now this whole thing made a few assumptions. One was that the last few months in 2020 would see a similar death rate to that of what we saw in February through August (which I mentioned above). The second is that the average annual increase in deaths was a accurate % to use because I was only able to find total deaths for 2016-2018. I couldn't really find it for earlier years from the same source (CDC). that's a small sample size for determining the "average annual % increase in deaths". But again, it was the best I had. I can see if I can find the excel where I did this if anyone wants.
Sorry, I went on a very long tangent because I personally find that data interesting
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 3:08 pm
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